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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gordon Quickstad who wrote (6928)	2/21/1998 12:34:00 AM
From: Hippieslayer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 11555

You make some good points, Gordon. Before I write any of my thoughts, let me say that I am not an EE nor do I know much about how a processor is built and the technical details about how bus speeds are increased, etc. Now that I have gotten that out of the way, I will throw out that Centaur, with very limited resources and very few employees compared to intel(but with a lot of talent which will be the key to their success), might have some tricks up their sleeves that could throw intel off guard. SOme observations. I went into a Staples store and came across an HP PAvillion with a PII chip (I think running at 266mhz). What surprised me is that the tower is HUGE! I thought the idea was to get computers to be smaller in size, not bigger. I also remember someone stating that Intels next PII cartridge is going to be even bigger than the one they have now! I don't know if trend of bigger personal computers will fly. That's what may be the ace in the hole for IDTI. If they can continue to shrink the C6 yet continue to increase it's performance(and keep the performance within earshot of intel), I don't see why IDTI can't dethrone intel. Yes, I said dethrone intel. Call me crazy, but at what point does speed of a processor really matter for the average computer usder? Will the consumer really care if one computer runs at 600mhz compared to 300mhz if he only uses certain programs that aren't all that dependent on the speed of the chip? There might be a difference when it comes to games, but then again maybe not(someone reading this who is proficient in computer engineering might be able to answer this). Plus, I hark back to the actual size of the computer. I think the consuming public would rather go for a smaller computer that having to lug home a behemoth tower. I know that there are a lot of people out there that want the latest and greatest when it comes to computer products, but I think there will come a point-and I think we are coming near -where people will realize that they want the best bang for the buck. And I think that a computer with IDTI's Centaur C6 will be their choice.* *all this is assuming that IDTI can actually get the c6+ out the door and have it rival that of the PII for less money. Just my 1.5 cents. Comments, criticism, and death threats are welcome :-)

To: Gordon Quickstad who wrote (6928)	2/21/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 11555

The issues of market dynamics and large OEM market opportunities, like major laptop biz, are unfortunately sidelined because IDTI has such limited production capabilities at the present time. The great news is that IDTI is getting very good yields on their production of the C6. It can be argued, as some have, that the yield assessment is premature. Achieving 60% yields at this early stage in the ramp may prove to be even more dramatic because high yields are normally not expected until being further down the learning curve. If IDTI continues to be able to produce parts at 60% or even higher yields, then they will have the low cost compared to other uP mfgs. I threw out the $30 calculation as being something that is possible but it's not without a lot of "ifs". We are near the $16-18 twelve month target of many analysts and a further short-term move up from here is looking increasingly treacherous. How far up will IDTI continue to move short-term? That's like guessing how far down the tract a runnaway train is going to go before it runs out of steam and how much coal is still in the hopper ready to be put to work. I am reluctant to say that we are in for a pull-back because a major fab agreement or some other news could trigger the stock to the low 20s.