Frightening reading: Rick Cowles on Y2K status in the utilities
Cowles is the authority on Y2K in the electric utility industry.
John
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Some of you might think I've dropped off the face of the planet, as I
haven't been posting much of late. Some of you might not have noticed or don't really care. Never the less, I thought I'd take a few minutes and bring everyone up to speed on what I've been up to with the electric utility industry and Y2k since the beginning of the year. I'll also summarize my overall impressions toward the end of this message.
I don't know if it's a valid indicator of electric industry panic or not,
but I've spent more time in trains, planes, and automobiles since January 1st than most of my adult life. The first two months of this year have been mostly spent with various electric company clients and industry conferences, and I'm getting a pretty clear picture of where things stand Y2k wise. The following is a generalization, but is at least 90 percent accurate in where the industry stands.
Most electric companies are still, for the most part, in the awareness / inventory stage of Y2k. Some are still fighting about how to conduct inventory. There is very little upper management appreciation of the depth of the Y2k issue.
That lack of appreciation translates into a
significant deficit of executive level support (resources and funding) for any Y2k projects. Y2k program managers are frustrated at their inability to convince their local or executive management that Y2k is, indeed, an enterprise threatening problem. There is a sense of urgency at the Y2k program management level that is approaching panic, but the executive support (resources and money) is still not materializing.
Executive management does not understand or appreciate their personal exposure on this thing. That is the *only* parameter that will get their attention - when they start to understand the personal legal implications (as corporate officers), maybe the support will be forthcoming, however, it's all but too late for that understanding to make a significant impact on any Y2k projects, not just the electric industry, even if that enlightenment occurred today.
Not one electric company has started a serious remediation effort on its embedded controls. Not one. Yes, there's been some testing going on, anda few pilot projects here and there, but for the most part it is still business-as-usual, as if there were 97 months to go, not 97 weeks.
Almost all electric utility Y2k projects are severely understaffed. I was at an independent generating company this week, which is responsible for production of nearly 3000 megawatts between just two large generating plants. This company *still* doesn't have ONE (count'em, *1*) person dedicated full time to Y2k, and this includes the project manager. This is a $5 BILLION facility, and their management has committed only a few hundred thousand dollars of `seed money' to the project. I sincerely feel sympathy for the Y2k project manager.
One of the grid honchos at Bonneville Power Authority just `kind of became aware' of the magnitude of the issue on the Western U.S. grid this week at a conference I attended. This gentleman made an in-depth presentation of the July and August, 1996 power outages that affected most of the western U.S. and Canada at the beginning of the conference. By the end of the conference, I believe, through his own presentation and that of other companies talking about the embedded controls issues, he made the internal connection between Y2k and these two large outages. By the end of the
conference, he understood how much this thing has the potential to impact the Western U.S. power grid. The Western U.S. power grid is so fragile it's scary. If they lose the Palo Verde generating facilities (in Arizona), for all intents and purposes, they lose the entire grid. Isn't that a great single-point failure?? But this guy has no more access to the high levels of BPA (a government agency, for those who don't know) than I do.
And then, Business Week Magazine this past week...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
"In particular, electric utilities are only now becoming aware that
programmable controllers--which have replaced mechanical relays in
virtually all electricity-generating plants and control rooms--may behave badly or even freeze up when 2000 arrives. Many utilities are just getting a handle on the problem. ''It's probably six months too soon for anyone to try to guess the complete extent of the problem,'' says Charlie Siebenthal, manager of the Year 2000 program at the Electric Power Research Institute, the industry group that serves as an information clearinghouse. ''We don't know'' if electricity flow will be affected, he said.
Nuclear power plants, of course, pose an especially worrisome problem.
While their basic safety systems should continue to work, other important systems could malfunction because of the 2000 bug. In one Year 2000 test, notes Jared S. Wermiel, who is leading the millennium bug effort at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the security computer at a nuclear power plant failed by opening vital areas that are normally locked. For that reason, the NRC is in the process of issuing a letter requesting confirmation from utilities that their plants will operate safely come Jan.
1, 2000. Given the complexity and the need to test, ''it wouldn't surprise me if certain plants find that they are not Year 2000-ready and have to shut down,'' says Wermeil."
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
"We don't know." "It wouldn't surprise me..."
The NRC confides that the plant security system at a nuclear power plant failed "open" during testing. The primary research organization of the industry "doesn't know if electricity flow will be affected". THERE'S 18 MONTHS TO GO - ISN'T IT TIME SOMEONE FOUND OUT??? (Rhetorical question: is there anyone still reading this newsgroup who does not believe that *every* nuclear plant in the domestic U.S. stands a very good chance of being down
on 01/01/2000?)
I want to stress that it's NOT the Y2k Program Managers (for the most part) who are to blame for this sorry state of affairs. Unfortunately, when the spit hits the fan, they will be the `fall guys' for this thing. If you are personally in this position, I suggest that you do one of two things: storm the CEO's office tomorrow morning demanding support, or quit. One of
the two, but it's a devil's deal anyway you cut it. If you don't do the
first, you are professionally dead. Jump the chain of command if you have to. There is no time left to mince words on this or wait for a papal-type audience two months from now. If you wait to kiss the CEO's ring, you might as well kiss your butt goodbye, and brush up on your unemployment line techniques. You're going to be professionally dead anyway, so you
might as well do your best to raise the CEO's awareness level and cleanse your own corporate soul.
So, there ya go. That's where things stand now.
Oh, one other thing. Contingency planning? The industry hasn't started thinking about it yet. What makes anyone think that the industry will seriously attack this issue prior to December, 1999?
Here's my main message - the electric industry doesn't have the time left to lick this thing. It's not that the resources or ability aren't there;
it's that the corporate will and and executive level understanding of the issue doesn't seem to be there.
But *you* have the time to take some personal action. Don't wait for the industry to fess up to not being able to solve this in time. Get your own personal contingencies in place, and then, start with your community. If you're reading this, you are part of the .0001% who truly appreciate the magnitude of this problem. When the awareness level of John Q. Public rises (as it surely will), I believe that you, having advanced knowledge of the issue, have a moral obligation to take a leadership role in your neighborhood or community regarding community preparedness.
My own personal strategy does not include heading for the hills; it
involves trying to keep my community together. To poorly paraphrase, "No man is an island." That's where I expect to be spending a majority of my own personal time during most of 1999, as Pollyanna-ish as that may be.
And finally, for those of you who still think, "Oh, there's two years left,
they'll get enough stuff fixed so at least a modicum of power can stay
on...", consider the following, which is my own personal take on how much time remains to fix this:
678 days (as of 28 Feb, 1998).
- 30 (2 weeks vacation per year - 30 days between 1998 and 1999.)
- 24 (Holidays)
- 194 (Saturdays/Sundays)
- 60 (non-productive workdays; holiday seasons, 1998 and 1999)
.......
370
x .7 (productivity factor; accounts for sick days, personal time, meetings,
and non-productive work time)
.......
259 productive work days between now and 01/01/2000
When I roll these numbers out to electric company representatives, they go
pale and I can hear the sounds of knees knocking.
Any questions?
--
Rick Cowles (Public PGP key on request)
"Electric Utilities and Y2k"
euy2k.com |
