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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (44351)	11/28/2024 5:25:18 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 51124

The Terrorist Offensive In Aleppo Is Meant To Deliver A Coup De Grace To Syria Andrew Korybko Nov 28, 2024 Assad is unlikely to be toppled, but Erdogan wants him to grant broad Bosnian-like autonomy to the Islamist-controlled northwest of the country in which Turkiye continues to exert influence, but the Syrian leader refuses to do so since he remains adamant that his Arab Republic must remain a unitary one. Likewise, he also won’t grant such autonomy to the Kurds in the US-occupied northeast, which is also the country’s most agriculturally and energy-rich region. Readers can learn more about this proposal here. On that topic, RFK Jr. revealed shortly after the US elections that Trump is considering withdrawing these American troops, which could lead to another Turkish offensive just like the several prior ones that were all carried out under the pretext of stopping Kurdish separatism. Unless pro-Turkish Kurds replace the political influence of Ankara-designated Kurdish terrorists there like they earlier did in Iraq, then Ankara will consider any autonomous project to be a stepping stone to more separatism inside of Turkiye itself. With this in mind, one of Turkiye’s strategic objectives in HTS’ offensive is to coerce Damascus into granting autonomy to the Islamists under its influence in the northwest while agreeing to do the same in the northeast but only after replacing the current ruling Kurdish clique with pro-Turkish ones. Turkiye could carry out joint operations with Syria in the northeast to defeat the separatists if American troops are withdrawn and Damascus first agrees to grant autonomy to the aforesaid Islamists. The other strategic objective that Turkiye is pursuing right now is to get on Trump’s good side by doing the US the strategic favor of delivering a coup de grace to Syria that finally ends this long-running conflict and thus frees him up to fully refocus on his planned “Pivot (back) to Asia”. In exchange, Trump might agree not to expand the sanctions regime that he’s inheriting to include Turkiye’s trade with Russia, which involves energy, agriculture, and also the transshipment of Western-sanctioned tech. korybko.substack.com