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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (3384)	2/21/1998 4:21:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18691

<<Just wait until xDSL and cable modems start being deployed in a big way. The strain on the networks will be so large that WCOM and other carriers will be begging CIEN for more WDM products.>> You hit the nail on the head!!!! Apparently you have some telecom knowledge...... For all that don't, imagine the following..... Your 56K modem is slow as hell........You can't download realtime audio effectively (heck, even realaudio has "internet backbone" problems......) currently..... This Christmas the 20 Million or so web surfers will have the option of upgrading their modems to a speed that is 20X the speed of current modems.....This will cause HUGE shocks to the infrastructure in place....BANDWIDTH IS NEEDED.....WCOM could get hurt as an explosion in the amount of data going thru their network could increase up to 5 fold EASILY.......... Applications that once were only dreams or too long will become a reality folks.......people will download a web page in a blink of a second....unless it is VERY, VERY graphically intense and has sound integrated into the page...... Just something to chew on before anyone decides to short CIEN at these levels..... It should be noted that I do not own CIEN at this time... I have never owned the stock or sold it short..... Dan Ross