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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Mowery who wrote (20834)	2/22/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: Ralph E. Daugherty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36349

Jay..... Thanks for your thoughts. I will have to study your approach in this post for I am very new at this. By the way for ALL my good friends and comrades: See February 23 Forbes Magazine, pg 122, and find article entitled "Stretching Copper Wire". Article about a private company by the name of COVAD who INTC helped with seed money. Their angle is a level higher than PAIR. Where the Telcos are selling T-1 at $1000 installation fee plus $600-1000 per month for 1.5 MM bits/sec they are going to compete by offering 1.0 MM bits/sec for $325 hookup plus $195/month against the telcos. They are registered to do business in 9 states already with launch in one city in California (don't remember which) and expect to be in business in 9+ cities this year. Intel is betting on them. Intel is tired of waiting. They mention the new consortium; but, angry for the telcos dragging their feet. Intel Pentium II, which I have in my new computer is capable of 30 mgb/sec and most of us can only get on at 56k, if that good! Actually, Prodigy is slow in my area in upgrading their servers. I can only get on at 28.8. We have small servers offering 56k X2 at $15/mo Unlimited. Prodigy has 9 sites in state of LA and only 2 have 56k and that's X2 while my old computer had X2; but, my new one has Flex. Hope I remembered this info correctly. Pairgain, AMTX, and Diamond Lane Communications were mentioned in the article as having the lead in '95 when they first looked at getting in the equipment business. A picture of COVAD's server is shown in the article. Their headquarters are a couple of blocks away from Intel's and NO accident. Their CEO is ex-Intel manager. Hope they go public. NOW, Telcos will get pressure from another direction to get with it on DSL. PAIR needs some publicity like this article showing their market share, etc. Thanks again for your thoughts Jay. Sorry, for long winded post. ralph

To: Jay Mowery who wrote (20834)	2/22/1998 2:56:00 AM
From: PiedPiper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36349

Hi Jay!! I don't want to rain on your parade but PUT selling is very dangerous at specific times in the market/stock cycle. Both of these cycles exist right now. The market is at all time highs in many valuations and in specific numbers as of Friday (not NaZ). With a potential catalyst for a pitfall (Iraq), a calamitous day can occur rather logically near term. The other possibility regards earnings surprises which often occur during slower sales periods for specific companies, e.g. telecom or other eqmt makers in Q1, a natural slowdown based upon procurement cycles.. Since we have basically passed last years' earnings reports and now should look at the first quarter, we must be on the lookout for a potential warning about the coming year (CIEN immed. comes to mind). Naturally , not all companies come to the same conclusions at the same time and I am not anticipating PAIR to do so since I like these guys. Shorting highly leveraged options during these times can be scary should the stock crater. Selling PUTs implies understanding the risk of failure not the potential for gain, just as buying calls implies the understanding of the probabilities of losing not the potential for gain. I am reminded of 1987 for I do not know if you have experienced it, I will not try to preach upon the fact that Put selling became the rage back then over selling calls. I do not recall what triggered the trading public to move that way other than merger mania and excessive PEs plus the ever rising market. Now we have the second but only a little of the first and third reasons, so we should not be as alarmed right? Well, Saddammit --No! The individual stock risk is SEASONALLY risky becuz any potential shortfall anticipated in the next 6 months will be reported near term. That fact is commonplace in the industry (The CLean Slate Syndrome). Thus just your basic call buyiing is a better risk strategy for now over selling puts -- if your bulllish. Now we reach the crux of the problem,bullish or bearish? Can anyone say that they are bearish and explain please? I'm into TA and I like this one for at least the next 6 mos. for a good 50 % so I would love to hear the flip side?