Relevant Post (RP)
Re: Technical (Voodoo) Analysis
Mr. B,
<<I was thinking the same thing about the "double bottoming". Does that mean that the low should be around 3.75 - 3.85? Looking at the two year FTEL chart, every time their is a "double bottoming" a significant increase or new high is established. Based on the expected events that is hopefully about to take place, we may see this happen.
Any other thoughts?<<
Parting from my general opinion of TA (particularly applied to a barrel of dynamite/"black hole" (i.e.: Penny stocks), which I view it as 1/3 science, 1/3 art, and 1/3 voodoo:
Excellent observation! but in addition we need to brake resistance for this to happen, and we seem to be "hesitating" in breaking the 4.87 "resistance", yet we refuse to go below 3.91 "support" . Yesterday was interesting in the following: We seemed to be directed to go to support at 3.91, yet we rebounded after trading at 4.00.
After closing at 5.125 on Feb 17, we went into a slide (somehow, a "downtrend" by definition; lower lows, lower highs).
Then yesterday, (on a candlestick chart) we had a filled "hammer"
Say what...?
Read the following definition: (copied from Trade Station)
Hammer:
The Hammer occurs in a downtrend and is so named because it is hammering out a bottom. Hammers indicate a bullish market on the horizon. Hammers have short bodies and require the lower shadow to be at least twice the length of the real body. The hammer is made of a single candlestick and can be filled or hollow. However, if the hammer has a hollow body, it means the sell-off reversed and prices closed at or near the high. As with most single candlestick patterns like the Hammer, it is important to wait for confirmation. This pattern works best when it occurs at the low of a trend or a congestion band.
Note: If the candlestick has a short upper shadow which is less than the acceptable tolerance level (arbitrary), it can still be considered a Hammer.
The last "note" is interesting because on 2/12/98, we had exactly such Hammer, and it was our "bottom" after sliding from our "support" (at the time) of 4.87.
So, in saying, "we have had our double bottom, and according to prior patterns of this event, we should indeed go to another high".
However, it seems, that we need to brake the above resistance, as it has been the case in prior instances. I.e.: $1.56 (on 8-18-95 and 8-1-96); or $3.16 (on 1/24/97), and $4.87 (on 10-07-97).
In all of the above instances we broke resistance, confirmed the following days and went on higher.
I thought that the $5.125 closing on 2/17/98 was our launch "set-up" date, but there was no confirmation and we went lower the next day (although not quite a "reversal", because we did not open higher).
Then we started sliding, including yesterday, but there was that "jump off of 4.00 (?!). This is the part that leads me to think that we are getting ready to go up, but we seem to lack "commitment"... Why?
As far as volume, after our 5.125 day, volume has diminished, except for an uptick in volume yesterday (187,000 as opposed to 152,200 the day before).
So... what gives? I am puzzled and to me we seem to be "hesitating".
To illustrate this "hesitation" of FTEL stock we must view this as follows:
Much like the provincial bride, (FTEL), she really wants to marry, (you know, after all those years of abstinence and handholding, she wants the "real thing" (Coca-Cola), she has seen it in the movies and all that).
Her local boyfriend (all the FTEL long term holders), want gratification (the instant kind), and they really would like to get the "earth-moving", "fire-works in-the-sky", "shake-me-all-around baby" feelings.
He is the impatient type, handholding, constant whine, spoiled-baby, local cowboy.
She however, while of humble beginnings, has her views set high, to learn about the world, but she needs to get rid of the provincial mentality that surrounds her (bulletin-board listing, influenced by the sons of Satan "mm" etc.). Worst of all, she is subject to the "negative gossip" by the local "yellow press", you know the "vs news(!)" the "doom&gloom TDS Monitor" and, last but not least, the wildass ever radical "JeanGazzelle".
On top of all of the above, she really has second thoughts, is this guy for real or am I going to get "stuck" with this dumb, local, cowboy. He may change and then all he is going to expect me to do is be pregnant, barefoot and in the kitchen with 7 or 8 "bambinos".
Maybe I should "hold-off" and then go to Paris, Rome, Buenos Aires, and really have the time of my life... let my hair go wild... screw the old views about the "real thing" (Coca-Cola), after all, President Clintoris, does have his fun...
Oh what the hell! We will just wait for a while; I will go to the big city (NASDAQ). Once there, announce to the world that I have entered into a definitive pre-nuptial agreement with my secret love, the debonair Mr. Bernie Ebbers of the Worldcom organization, and then really go to town!
Forget this small-town chicken feed of "My home in the $20.- to $30.- range", If we are going to rumble, let's go for $50.- $100.- even $200.- after splits.
Yeah!, I will just sit there, hesitating not making my mind up. Let the small weakling, snot-in-the-nose local cowboy rots his brains out trying to figure what I am going to do next. He will get tired, bored, and eventually will leave me alone, once I get rid of all these baggage (resistance-sellers), then I will rocket, with firm hands holding me, to the MOON, Andy!!
Technical analysis does, at times, seem to have all the answers! |
