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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Smith who wrote (28614)	2/21/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: Jefferson Prescott Dewhurst	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572637

Joey, <<Oh, yeah..so you mean to tell me if Jerry tells shareholders in March that AMD will report losses for at least the next 2 quarters and he still doesn't know if yields will improve, that the stock will stay at $19?>> THE MARKET doesn't discount hypothetical future events.It doesn't reflect the fact that a Texas Tornado could level FAB 25. If either that event or the event you propose were to occur then the stock price would change to reflect the new state of affairs. THE MARKET does discount events which have already occurred such as yield problems, losses for the next 2 Q's and INTEL's pricing strategy. <<The stock market is not perfectly efficient when it comes to information and $19 may not represent the true state of things>> You and others persist in complaining that the market is flawed and inefficient when it refuses to validate your view that the price should be <<$19/sh. based on your recitation of all the factors which have already happened. Then you postulate various future events as if they have in fact occurred and use that as an argument that the market is not efficient, that other market participants are devious or foolish etc. <<(especially if investors and analysts are believing all the HYPE that comes from this company).>> Do you actually believe that a few individual investors and an analyst or two are driving the stock price? Apart from the sheer naivete and paranoia reflected by this statement there is the quite obvious and well documented anti AMD opinion of most analysts which refutes your argument. You should start analyzing stocks on a rational basis and accept that THE MARKET is much wiser than you. <<Good luck on your $40 AMD prediction within a year. <ggg>>> Thanks for the best wishes. I plan to enjoy the ride to $40+ while all the shorts rage on about the evil, manipulated inefficient market which refuses to acknowledge that AMD is only worth $8 as their $10 puts expire worthless. Maybe I'll sell some puts to you! Dewy.

To: Joey Smith who wrote (28614)	2/21/1998 7:16:00 PM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572637

Joey, <so you mean to tell me if Jerry tells shareholders in March that AMD will report losses for at least the next 2 quarters and he still doesn't know if yields will improve, that the stock will stay at $19?> Maybe it would be a surprise, but only for you. The MARKET already knows that there is no way for AMD to be profitable these current 1-2 quarters under current competition, with the technology transition and price pressure from Intel's paranoids. There might be another truth for you: it is well known (in certain circles of economic science) that the price is determined by difference between EXPECTATIONS of investors and available information. You think you are operating on information, but you are apparently unfamiliar with the first part of the formula that drives investment decisions. Look what you wrote: <You are severely underestimating the severity of AMD's problems> You apparently have certain (unrealistic) expectations (like jokes about normality of 85% yield, or production ramp of more than 4X per quarter). OTHER people have DIFFERENT EXPECTATIONS, more realistic. Therefore, no matter what the news are, the AMD price remains some constant, as the recent historical data shows. This is a FACT from the current MARKET. <$19 may not represent the true state of things (especially if investors and analysts are believing all the HYPE that comes from this company). According to the number of AMD bashers on this thread, not too many people fall into the category you just outlined. Therefore, your argument is proven wrong again. Let me reiterate again my question. If you do not have any serious AMD position, what is your reason to spend so much time on AMD thread? Do you fear something from AMD or what? Why not relax, be with family, go play golf, or just watch Olimpics?