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To: getgo234 who wrote (9964)	2/21/1998 7:23:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25814

Getgo: I like that argument. But I think the magnitude of the problem is huge and the Koreans act of selling their higher quality assets (and I think Symbios is one such asset) shows just how desperate they are and is I suspect still to finance their debt payments as opposed to capital additions. No real good feel but I did see an article recently showing just how severe the problem is. I really wonder how much cash they'll have left over for capital additions. For AMAT's sake I hope it is a lot, for MU I hope a little. Funny game. The semi-equips hope Korea would buy, MU hopes they won't. ----- What intrigued me about the Symbios buy is that now Adaptec will now be able to finance the capital additions that Symbios needs. So AMAT is happy and MU is unhappy, Hyundai is likely not pleased since it looks like they sold cheap but at least they have a shot at survival. ----- This is what I pointed out earlier - the Koreans issue is really survival not so much growth at this stage. So that's why I thought AMAT might suffer from the problems of a lack of spending by the Koreans and others while MU would do fine because they'd be able to have a larger piece of the DRAM market. To extend this argument, the semi-equips would be hurt, the semiconductor companies would do all right (big stretch for the semis!). Hence I liked the semis and was not so ga-ga about the semi-equips. However if instead everyone chips in and helps the Koreans and Japanese (not out of charity but instead the time honored tradition of buying assets cheap when you have the chance), then AMAT wins and MU gets hurt. By extension the semi-equips do well and the semis get hurt. Just the opposite of the argument in the prior paragraph. [Then again, perhaps the semis and semi-equips doing well are not mutually exclusive since there is still high unit demand for chips.] [But I still will stick to one thing at least the BTB for semi-equips will show a sizeable drop for Jan. and I'm not sure the market has any idea about just how severe the drop is is going to be. BTB comes out next week (has to!). My only regret about all of this is that I missed the ride on my buddy KLIC by a dumb $0.25 - buy order did not go through by this amount. That stings.]

To: getgo234 who wrote (9964)	2/21/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 25814

GetGo, PMFJI, but my comment to you is:: RIGHT ON.. That is the same point I have been hammering for the past couple of months...and a rationale for jumping on MU in Dec..(Wish I had ridden it as far as the Mystic E!).. Main point you make, with which I fully concur...Those Chaebols aren't going to blow big bucks on new fabs and new equipment if they can't convice their bankers to fork over. Those guys aren't "forking" unless they are SOLID assurances that the new investments are PROFITABLE (read: BIG MARGINS)... Which means that the US chipmakers get to maintain decent margins for a change... Translation: MU's earnings go skyward in a couple more quarters! (all IMHO, of course).. In fact, MU could be so high next year that Kurlak will reverse his "avoid" rating <gg>... You've got it pegged, GG! TSO