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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Julius Wong who wrote (209703)12/26/2024 11:22:20 PM
From: TobagoJack2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Cogito Ergo Sum
marcher

  Respond to of 219167
 
re <<Americans on edge>> ... easy to get off of edge, just make friends and play nice

in the meantime, as we near Trump 2.0 first day show, an 'oh dear' moment

bloomberg.com

Chinese Exports to Hit Record This Year Before Second Trump Term

- Economists raise their forecasts for exports in fourth quarter
- Trump’s threat of higher tariffs creates risk of new trade war


China is on track for a record trade surplus that could reach almost $1 trillion this year.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

By Bloomberg News

25 November 2024 at 06:00 GMT+8

Economists expect Chinese exports to reach a historical high this year as customers rush to front-load orders given President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of higher tariffs when he takes office in January.

Export growth will accelerate to 7% in the final three months from the same period last year, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Nov. 15-21. That’s an upgrade from the 5% gain seen in October ahead of the US election and would push total exports this year to $3.548 trillion — above the previous record in 2022.

“In the next few months, Chinese exports might benefit from panic-stockpiling by foreign companies,” said Erica Tay, an economist with Maybank Investment Banking Group. “The specter of a trade war will probably cause China’s policymakers to lean more heavily on pro-consumption stimulus measures next year.”

Economists Upgrade China's Exports Growth OutlookExpectations for factory-gate prices, investment weakened

Source: Bloomberg survey of economists

Note: Figures represent estimates for 2024 year-on-year change unless otherwise indicated

Exports already started off this quarter with the fastest growth since July 2022, putting China on track for a record trade surplus that could reach almost $1 trillion this year. Beijing has continued to look to sales abroad to offset the weakness of domestic demand even as officials pivoted in recent weeks by pumping stimulus into the economy.

On the campaign trail, Trump threatened to increase the levies on Chinese goods to as high as 60%, a level that Bloomberg Economics predicts would decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs of up to 25% on more than $300 billion of Chinese shipments — triggering retaliation from Beijing — and President Joe Biden has largely kept them in place.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...“China’s recent pro-growth pivot has potential to put the economy on a faster track. A trade war with the US in 2025 threatens that prospect. The challenge for Beijing is to turn its stimulus plans into growth traction and shield the economy from another wave of Trump tariffs.”

— Chang Shu, Eric Zhu and David Qu, economist. For full analysis, click here

The prospect of an expanded trade war after Trump returns to the White House is raising expectations for greater stimulus going into next year, as China braces for a new era of protectionism. In contrast to the booming exports, import growth has flat-lined as the domestic economy struggles to pick up, provoking a global backlash from countries that fear the flood of cheaper Chinese goods.

China’s gross domestic product is set to expand 4.9% in the fourth quarter, up from the 4.8% projected last month, Bloomberg’s poll showed.

WATCH: Trump Is Facing a Losing Tariff War With China

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate China will free up money for banks to lend by cutting their reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, while holding key policy rates such as the seven-day reverse repo steady until next year. The expectations are unchanged from the October survey.

The central bank last cut the RRR in September, shortly after Governor Pan Gongsheng unveiled an array of aggressive steps to put a floor under China’s growth slowdown. Last month, Pan reiterated the People’s Bank of China may lower the ratio by another 25 to 50 basis points by the end of the year depending on liquidity conditions in the market.

Chinese Exports on Track For Another Bumper YearShipments might hit a record this year if growth continues at current pace

Source: China's General Administration of Customs, Bloomberg calculations

“We assume a bigger tariff shock compared to 2018-2019, but China is now less dependent on the US, has developed a playbook to react — including yuan deprecation — and will add stimulus,” said Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank NV.



To: Julius Wong who wrote (209703)12/27/2024 3:38:49 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 219167
 
re <<revelations>> ... the news keep flowing, about planes looking like UFOs and trains looking like planes



scmp.com

China’s high-speed rail enthusiasts glimpse the future as 450km/h train spotted
Updated: 3:57pm, 27 Dec 2024


The CR450 seen heading towards Beijing this week will be the fastest commercial service in the world when it starts operations next year

China’s next innovation in high-speed rail, the CR450, tipped to be the world’s fastest commercial train when it starts operations next year, was captured by enthusiasts in a series of videos as it made its way from Tianjin to Beijing on Wednesday.

It was the second glimpse of the CR450 – designed with a trial speed of 450km/h (280mph) and a commercial operating speed of 400km/h (249mph) – after a test video briefly surfaced online in November before it was taken down.

The train resembles an arrow when viewed from the side. Its sleek, bullet-shaped nose has slightly angular contours, while the cockpit features trapezoidal side windows and decorative breathing lights.

Last month’s apparently leaked test video featured a train marked CR450AF-0001, while the latest images show an eight-car CR450 with its serial number covered by white tape.

The body is unpainted but the Fuxing branding of China’s bullet trains is visible, highlighting that the new train builds upon the foundation of the CR400, which debuted in 2017.

Today, China’s high-speed rail system is the world’s largest network in operation, covering more than 45,000km (28,000 miles).

The China State Railway Group announced in September that the CR450 train had entered its full assembly phase, with prototype units expected to roll out before the end of the year.

The project is part of China’s 14th five-year plan, under an initiative that also includes upgrades to high-speed rail infrastructure such as tracks, bridges, and tunnels.

According to official data, the CR450 train body weighs about 10 tonnes, making it 12 per cent lighter than the existing CR400 model. Operational resistance and energy consumption have been reduced by 20 per cent, while braking performance is up by the same amount.


An image taken from the video that appeared on Chinese social media showing the CR450’s sleek, bullet-shaped nose and angular contours. Photo: Weibo/????LX

The improvements make possible the 50km/h increase in commercial operating speed, without affecting the train’s braking distance, noise levels, or energy efficiency, the data shows.

The CR450 achieved a record-breaking speed of 453km/h (281mph) in performance testing carried out in June last year.

During the trial runs – on the Meizhou Bay Cross-Sea Bridge in southeast China – two CR450 trains passing each other reached a combined relative speed of 891km/h (554mph).

This week’s sighting of the CR450 has led to speculation among enthusiasts about which routes it will serve, with some pointing out that the Beijing-Shanghai line might require upgrades due to potential settlement issues from earlier construction.

The Chengdu-Chongqing Central Line, which is built to a higher standard, is considered to be a likely candidate for the CR450 to operate at its maximum design speed, according to commentary on social media platforms.



To: Julius Wong who wrote (209703)12/27/2024 10:10:10 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 219167
 
re <<come forward with ... revelations ... on edge>>

okay ... things looking good for 2025
infrastructure
fashion, no woke-dom
'peer' competitor self-evaluation
mathematics inevitability
duplication, sense of humour
interesting 24-hours
same 24-hours
same 24-hours
wrong, very wrong, because NOT maiden flights
detailing, and Team USA must decide whether to play Follow-the-Leader, and if yes, with NGAD at US$ 300M a copy, strenuous, at 3.6 billion per reduced squadron on borrowed money
- both fighters sport regular paint schema, as opposed to proto-type primer-only coating
- the lager of the two fighters sported call sign 36011, meaning J36, 11th copy, meaning close to serial production run, meaning the 5-eyes intelligence network was asleep on the job
- 3 engines installed on the bigger fighter, 2 apparently for regular <20,000 meters (<66k feet) use, and 1 supposedly for ultra high-altitude thin-air (>20k+ meters) powering
- call it mach 3+ at thin-air altitude, always looking down
- 2,000+ km range, which is ultra-long range for fighters
- huge weapons bay for big mother rockets, always headed downward
- information node, good with use of 2,000 (2k) km into-air missiles know to be under development
- likely also intended to command wingman drones with commensurate specs for fearless operations
- now we understand why Team USA put on hold whatever working on w/r to NGAD (next generation air domination) as the specs were probably wanting, and the per plane budget of $300M wanting more



To: Julius Wong who wrote (209703)12/28/2024 10:29:19 AM
From: Pogeu Mahone  Respond to of 219167
 
Massive invasive python is freed into the Palm Beach County wilderness. Here’s why.


Tanya Toutant, left, and Donna Kalil pose with a large female Burmese python that they both captured and released for a telemetry study conducted by the University of Florida. (Bill Kearney/South Florida Sun Sentinel)


By Bill Kearney | South Florida Sun Sentinel
UPDATED: December 27, 2024 at 4:01 PM EST

Donna Kalil, one of Florida’s most famed snake hunters, usually hates seeing invasive pythons get away, but on a postcard-pretty morning a few days before Christmas, she teamed up with researchers from the University of Florida to release one of the larger snakes she’d ever caught.

The snake was a muscular, 14-foot, 140-pound beast, and according to the biologists transporting her.

Kalil knows the snake, once free, will go on to kill native wildlife again. But it’s for a good cause — a python-tracking program that hopes to unlock some of the mysteries behind this incredibly successful but destructive apex predator.

Knowledge gained from the study, a collaboration between the University of Florida, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and the U.S. Geological Survey, will help python hunters and land managers to combat this incredibly successful invasive predator as they ravage Florida’s ecosystems.

When UF researcher biologists Eric Suarez, Aaron Chimelis and Alex Grimsley lower the snake out of her crate, she’s hissing and most definitely still in a foul mood.

Kalil, 62, takes the head and the others help with the heavy body. They gently lay her upon the long grass, exactly where Kalil and python-hunting partner Tanya Toutant had caught her two weeks ago, while she was basking on the sunny side of a levee in the wilderness west of Boca Raton.

The highly destructive snakes, which hail from Southeast Asia and were brought here via the exotic pet trade of the 1970s and ’80s, are notoriously hard to spot, but Toutant said this one was easy. “You see a big tube with a sheen to it and think, ‘That’s not supposed to be there,’” she said.

Since 2022, the UF team has been implanting invasive pythons caught in protected grasslands of western Broward and Palm Beach counties with VHF devices and tracking their movements and habits.

The goal, Suarez says, is to better understand the snakes’ behavior, movement patterns and habitat use in the swampy grasslands that makes up much of the larger Everglades system.

Tanya Toutant examines a 14-foot, 140-pound python before releasing it into an area west of Boca Raton. (Bill Kearney/South Florida Sun Sentinel)Suarez said UF is currently tracking 14 snakes, each fitted with two VHF tags, which last about 2 years.

They recapture snakes before batteries die.

Sometimes the snakes die — they suspect some were eaten.

When that happens, professional python hunters with the South Florida Water Management District, such as Kalil, who normally humanely euthanize captured snakes, instead provide them to UF researchers.

Kalil has been hunting professionally with SFWMD since 2017, when the program started. Before that, she volunteers to hunt snakes in Everglades National Park. The python she’s releasing today was the 1,034th invasive Burmese pythons she has caught in her career.

Suarez says this snake could go on to eat anything from alligators to raccoons, possums, otters and even deer. “A lot of these species didn’t evolve with a large predator like this,” says Suarez, who grew up just south of here, in Hialeah. “So they’re pretty naive to them being around.”

That naivety has proved deadly to Florida’s native wildlife. Road surveys in Everglades National Park show a decrease in mammal sightings of 98% in areas where pythons dominate. Water levels may have played a role in such studies, but surveys in other areas show similar mammal drop offs.

Finding breeding ballsIn addition to offering a treasure trove of data, the released snakes actually give researchers the chance to find and remove even more snakes.

If a snake holds up on a tree island or levee during breeding season, which is occurring right now, it could be taking part in a breeding aggregation, where several males gather around a large female.

Suarez and others will take an airboat to the location and catch as many males as they can.

“Last year, we came across three breeding aggressions. Out of the 12 snakes observed, we removed eight,” says Suarez. “That’s a pretty good removal rate, about 67%.”

Later in spring, if a tagged female builds a nest, researchers will collect an average of 33 eggs, though sometimes many more.

Tanya Toutant, wearing an orange shirt, and Donna Kalil, in a pink shirt, help University of Florida researchers Aaron Chimelis, Alex Grimsley and Eric Suarez check for VHF radio tags before releasing a 14-foot, 140-pound invasive Burmese python into an area west of Boca Raton. (Bill Kearney/South Florida Sun Sentinel)Discoveries thus farThe trackers have led to some surprising findings about the snakes.

— One of the most startling was about how far they travel. Last year, a male snake traveled a 40-mile loop in six months, sojourning on a levee just west of Miramar, all the way to the border of Big Cypress Wildlife Management Area and back to the same general area west of Miramar. Suarez and his fellow biologists were amazed by the findings.

— Some breeding aggregations occur on floating mats of vegetation — no dry land needed.

— Some nests are built atop older ones. The UF team hopes to determine if females return to the same nesting sight each year by testing the DNA of the shells left behind in each layer to see if it’s from the same mother snake.

— More animals prey on python eggs than previously thought. Trackers researchers to flock of vultures raiding a python nest and devouring the eggs.

Researchers are also compiling data on growth rates and survivorship, all of which is lacking at this point, said Suarez.

In the future, the UF team hopes to use GPS trackers, which would give them closer to real-time data on location. VHF trackers only tell them where the snakes are when they search for them, which is four times per week, twice via levees, and twice via airboats.

They’re also excited to deploy their new drone, which could fly in a grid to detect the VHS signals and cover much larger areas faster — crucial when you consider the Everglades and Francis S. Taylor Wildlife Management Area is more than 600,000 acres of habitat.

An angry pythonSuarez says that most snakes slither off when you let them go, but the big female that Kalil and Toutant are releasing today is not one of them. When Kalil releases her grip and jumps back, the snake immediately hisses and coils into a fighting stance. After a few minutes, it’s clear that she has no intention of moving.

She’s fairly exposed on the levee, though, and Kalil and Toutant are concerned that another hunter could come along and find her. They spend the next 20 minutes trying to coax her into the dense underbrush, but she’s still in a fighting mood.

Kalil gets closer, as if trying to shoo the python down the levee. The snake strikes and somehow the 62-year-old Kalil, who still moves like a teenager, dodges it.

Eventually they convince her to move into the underbrush.

Donna Kalil, left, and Tanya Toutant pose in front of their specialized python hunting truck on a levee in the wilderness area west of Weston. (Bill Kearney/South Florida Sun Sentinel)

“I feel fantastic about doing this,” says Kalil. “That girl down there is going to eat some other animals, but hopefully, she’ll bring us other pythons, and all the data that they’re gonna receive — hopefully it’ll make it easier for us to find them, and we’ll be able to get some of her boyfriends out of the Glades, and keep them from eating stuff.”

Bill Kearney covers the environment, the outdoors and tropical weather. He can be reached at bkearney@sunsentinel.com. Follow him on Instagram @billkearney or on X @billkearney6.

Originally Published: December 26, 2024 at 9:21 AM EST