Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dupont Photomasks (DPMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (155)	2/21/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 955

Great assessment, Wizard, and DPMI is even better positioned than it would appear, as they will catch the full share of all the old, less complex DRAM masking...because the Asian companies are going to have to pump product to stay in the race... but also because they are right in the heart of the move to more complex circuitry and finen line widths.. They have a couple of other unique advantages.. but a major one is the critical mass... they own 37 percent of the market, largest in the world...and the little "Mom and Pop" maskers can't make it to the next level... DPMI has the technical talent, and the capital, to easily make the next move...while funding some unique R & D to tackle the moves beyond UV lithography... The more you look into this one, the better it is...and I can't wait until you start one of your usual moves into the DD here... Maybe I'm not being optimistic enough!! :-) TSO

To: shane forbes who wrote (155)	2/21/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 955

Wizard, your other point about DPMI not being as cycle as the industry they support... absolutely right! And the key reason, IMHO, is that the Chipmakers suffer falling margins on aging product as it goes through the cycle --- buy the chip-makers keep paying for the photomasks all through a cycle, with MINIMAL impact on margins to DPMI. So DPMI is in the unusual position of being a GROWTH company supporting a cyclical growth industry.. Nice position. That's why you don't see the big earnings swings..especially downswings.. like an MU or a TXN... Of course there are special circumstances...for example, DPMI did not hedge their currency exposure in SE Asian, so they took a ten cents per share hit in the 4th quarter, even though sales met targets. Taking those sales back in dollar terms is what cost the hit...but that is a one-time thing. What is important is that DPMI has been reporting significant Sales Growth (see my posts 145 through 149) through a DOWN period for the industry they serve... with the only impact to earnings being the currency translation -- an event which will not recur. Now moving back into the upcycle, analysts are projecting high double-digit growth, despite the continuing effect of SE Asia. If the effect from SE Asia is LESS than expected...those projections could prove quite conservative, IMHO. And I'll keep buying... The Saintly One

To: shane forbes who wrote (155)	2/22/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 955

Wizard, While we are talking about GROWTH at DPMI, it is good to remember that DPMI is the Leader in a couple of niche areas... One of which is it's dominant position as a supplier of Deep Ultra Violet (DUV) pellicles, an area expected to explode over the next 18 months, from 300 steppers to over 600 steppers...a nice little increment to the Sales GROWTH projected for DPMI over the coming quarters... Here;s more on that:http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980126/dupont_pho_2.html TSO