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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry who wrote (3391)	2/21/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Gotham Guru	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Larry, <<Want a recent example? Probably less than 0.1% people predicted that DOW will hit 8400 in Feb. (on the contrary, most of us would have felt lucky is DOW remains in above 8000), and yet it did in a very convincing manner. To put it simple, if people have listened to those bullshit in the last six weeks, they missed a big opportunity to significantly improve their portfolios.>> This is not BS. Please remember that everything is a cycle. Yes, the economy is strong but it can't last forever. Yes, I agree that the market is still in a bull run. IMHO it is only in a bull run still because people don't have anywhere else to put their savings,401k $,fund money,etc.. This will end at some point with a rise in inflation and interest rates. It will come, but timing it may be difficult. I can't imagine putting in money into a foreign market like the Hangsing--it's at 15000 for Christ's sake. You can't really believe that if the DOW gets to 10000 it's still a buy can you? Granted it may get there but lets be realistic. How much bigger can you blow a balloon? Yes, on monday and thru the week I intend to cover many of my short positions-at a profit thank god-but I wont go long either. I will stay in cash (except for starting a short position in BFIT:) for real-the volume's starting to dry up and I think its been pumped for the big fall)-until this craziness of ridiculous P/E's and people buying anything no matter what the valuation shows a sign of slowing down-at some point people will keep some money in the bank and run out of money to risk in a market that will eventually take their profits and some principal with it. When people are so confident that wherever they go long in the market it makes me wonder. Anyhow-I'll stop rambling now-and begin another short position. Instigator

To: larry who wrote (3391)	2/22/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

larry, so discussing the risks of an overinflated market is "bullshit"? You say heeding the cautionary statements of bears (or cautious bulls really) resulted in "missing out" on a "big opportunity". I suppose if 9 of 10 people out to dinner in Nagano ate Fugu, enjoyed it and didn't die, the tenth person would be a fool for not wanting to take the risk. I hope you are lucky enough to pick the exact top to get out. Oops, I almost forgot. We've been looking for a top "since years ago" and the bull market continued. Therefore, it will always be a bull market and we should throw caution to the wind as long as there are bears in the woods. Let's address your argument: Lots of street strategists are also bears. Since when? Wall Street Week, this week, showed 5 bulls, 4 neutral, and 1 bear in its weekly survey of TOP Wall Street Strategists. In fact, there hasn't been more than one bear in that survey for months. Want other evidence? How about Investors Intelligence? They survey advisors every week; this week they show 30.3% bears compared to 36.3% two weeks earlier. Market Vane shows a 74% Bullish Consensus now compared to 64% two weeks earlier and only got as high as 62% last October before the "market event". Not enough? OK. Consensus Inc. has bulls at 65%, up from 42% in two weeks and AAII (the "II" stands for Individual Investor) has bears down to 15% vs. 25% two weeks earlier. So, where are all the bears? Probably a majority of them are right hear on this thread. The other five haven't joined SI yet. larry, do you seriously think that the market can sustain a 25 PE on the S&P 500 with earnings growing in the single digits? It's NEVER done it before. Will it be "different this time"? Your apparent belief that the market will continue to rise simply because the bears have been wrong as long as you can remember is, to be blunt, foolish. The fact is that a bear is as hard to find on Wall Street these days as a bull was in the summer of 1982. Investing any money in stocks then was seen as being just as foolish as not investing most or all your money in stocks is seen now. Good luck, Bob