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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (209957)	1/5/2025 9:02:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By maceng2 Respond to of 217545

happy 2025 China deflation of real estate, a good-good, because makes for happy residents, given that the home ought not be an object of speculation that pauperises society, but just and only a place to live

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (209957)	1/6/2025 9:16:56 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217545

following up Message 34964676 in particular on the issue of the F35, that which shall experience quite rapid loss of market orders and concurrently perhaps faster increase of order cancellations, per what is happening to Lockheed Martin seriously down, -9% since a few days ago, and for exactly the macro reason we reckoned, per Barrons of WSJ Using same-same logic, Nasdaq AI space should crater as well unless the Trump does a Nixon, perhaps, maybe, possibly, for Team China DeepSeek is doing to Meta, Google, etc etc what China AVIC (Aviation Industry Corp) is doing to LMT, BA, etc etc Reminder, the 'ahyayaya' starts at mark of 1:30 and since this video now known to be sporting 2+2 engines, with 2 for normal atmospheric flight and 2 others for low earth orbit flight (say 20-100 km). Pointing out that anything flying at low earth orbit has no particular 'range' issue should it simply keep to over-watch role, with long range air-air missiles at the ready, say PL-17 with 400 km out-sticking range finance.yahoo.com barrons.com China, the F-35, and Air Dominance. Deutsche Bank analyst Scott Deuschle cut his rating from Buy to Hold. His price target went to $523 a share from $611. Updated Jan. 2, 2025 4:09 pm ET / Original Jan. 2, 2025 1:39 pm ET The conventional takeoff and landing variant of the F-35 jet fighter. Liz Lutz/Lockheed Martin Lockheed stock finished lower Thursday, after Deutsche Bank downgraded the shares, reversing a mid-2024 upgrade, as Chinese progress in developing jet fighters raises doubts about sales of the F-35. Lockheed stock closed down 0.8% at $482.25, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. He had upgraded shares to Buy in July, believing earnings growth would accelerate, leading to a higher valuation multiple. “We’re downgrading Lockheed to Hold (from Buy) as we feel our prior thesis struggles to hold water and we have increased concern on the long-term support for F-35 in the face of China’s combat aircraft modernization efforts,” wrote Deuschle. “We’re struggling to find a compelling upside case on estimates,” wrote Deuschle. That means slower earnings growth. What is more, he said he sees “the reveal of further advancements in combat aircraft capabilities by China as potentially undermining long-term [Department of Defense] demand for the F-35 aircraft.” China recently published videos of its sixth-generation jet fighter. It looks a little like a UFO, with a diamond shape and no traditional tail fins. The F-35—which accounts for some 25% of Lockheed’s total sales—is a fifth-generation jet fighter. While the U.S. has sixth-generation jet fighter programs, referred to as next-generation air dominance, or NGAD, and Lockheed is likely bidding to provide those planes, how the process will play out isn’t clear. Defense contractors don’t talk about early-stage contracts, and uncertainty weighs on stock valuations. “The developments in China are likely to accelerate the need for NGAD, and the ultimate success in fielding NGAD by the early-mid 2030s could…partially cut into the F-35 procurement program,” Deuschle said. He said that Lockheed could ultimately win NGAD, helping the stock next year. The problems is that a Lockheed competitor such as Boeing could also win the award. The F-35 is used by the U.S. Navy, Air Force, and Marines as well as 20 countries across the globe. More than 1,000 jets are in operation. The program has been a win for Lockheed investors but it has also generated some anxiety. In November, Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticized crewed jets, indicating he preferred unmanned technology and creating some volatility in Lockheed stock. Investors need to track Musk’s opinions. He runs Tesla as well as the world’s most valuable aerospace company, SpaceX. He also co-runs the so-called Department of Government Efficiency with Vivek Ramaswamy, which will recommend how to curtail government spending. Overall, 42% of analysts covering Lockheed stock rate the shares at Buy, according to FactSet, while the average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target for Lockheed shares is about $602.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (209957)	1/8/2025 10:26:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

re <<hmm what is math>> ... yeup, I understand what you mean take this day's Bloomberg, very confusing on my end like, just what is so wrong with - -0- inflation, - falling currency against the 5%-yielding dollar, and - 35%-domestic-investment-returns bloomberg.com

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (209957)	1/8/2025 10:29:51 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

re <<beyond financial addiction let alone, hmm what is math>> <<fucking>> double-down triple-up, drill baby drill, and let loose the dogs of war, that which boosts the dollar ... zerohedge.com Dollar Surges On CNN Report Trump Considering National Emergency Declaration To Justify New Tariffs BY TYLER DURDEN WEDNESDAY, JAN 08, 2025 - 08:05 PM It has not even been two days since the Washington Post published its attempt to manipulate the dollar lower by claiming, falsely, that Trump intends to water down his sanctions, when moments ago the dollar soared on what is most likely another piece of fake news - and also just as likely another attempt by hedge fund "sources" to manipulate the FX market - when CNN reported that Trump "is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries." And unlike the WaPo's "three" so-called sources, in the quest for anonymous BS supremacy CNN went to cite a whopping "four sources familiar with the matter." According to the report, which is likely just as "real" as the WaPo's fake news, the emergency declaration will allow Trump - who is pursuing a rebalancng of global balance of trade in his second term - to construct a new tariff program by using the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, known as “IEEPA,” which unilaterally authorizes a president to manage imports during a national emergency. Trump, one of the sources noted, has a fondness for the law, since it grants wide-ranging jurisdiction over how tariffs are implemented without strict requirements to prove the tariffs are needed on national security grounds. “Nothing is off the table,” said a second source familiar with the matter, acknowledging the robust discussion over declaring a national emergency that has taken place. Of course, none of this is actually news! But sadly algos have a 15 millisecond memory so it all sounds exciting and grandiose to them. In 2019, Trump used IEEPA to threaten a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports that would rise to 25% if Mexico declined to take action to reduce the number of undocumented immigrants crossing the border with the United States. After Mexican officials traveled to Washington for a week of in-person negotiations – and an agreement was reached to reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” immigration policy – the tariffs were never implemented. But the specter of the potential action, predicated by a national emergency Trump had declared on the southern border three months earlier, led prominent business lobbying groups like the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable to prepare lawsuits challenging the legality of such a move. Trump’s advisers are evaluating the possibility of using section 338 of US trade law, which allows a president to impose “new or additional duties” against countries deemed to be discriminating against the commerce of the United States. In those cases, trade law permits the president to impose new tariffs in direct reciprocation against those countries in specific product categories – though it’s been untested in recent history. They’re also considering revisiting the trade law – known as section 301 – that ushered in Trump’s initial tariffs on China on national security grounds. The Biden administration left the vast majority of Trump’s tariffs in place – and increased tariffs on certain products like electric vehicles – providing a basis for the incoming president to increase or adjust the tariffs as he sees fit. But implementing tariffs under this statute requires a government investigation, and companies affected by the changes often lobby for months to be excluded from the levies. More importantly, no final decision has been made on whether to declare a national emergency, sources told CNN. Trump’s team is still exploring other legal avenues to buttress the tariffs that Trump pitched on the campaign trail. “I think the president has broad authority to impose tariffs for a variety of reasons, and there are a number of statutory bases to do so,” said Kelly Ann Shaw, a trade attorney who served as Trump’s deputy assistant for international economic affairs. “IEEPA is certainly one of them.” In other words, this is just one camp of anon sources - those who are long the USD - firing back at those who were short the USD ahead of the WaPo fake news report seeking to send the dollar plunging (which they did). And sure enough, the dollar has soared in the immediate aftermath of the WaPo report, with the BBDXY surging 0.6% with cable leading losses; GBP/USD down as much as 1.2% to 1.2334, lowest since April, while UK bond yields rise... [url=][/url] ... EUR/USD dropped 0.7% to 1.0273, eyes eyeing the 1.0223 Jan. 2 low... [url=][/url] ... while the USD/JPY up 0.3% to 158.55, highest since July; and on the verge of sparking the next round of BOJ intervention. [url=][/url] Ultimately, expect everything to revert to normal as FX traders recall that this kinda of verbal rollercoasters were all the rage for 4 years during Trump's first admin, only for the new generation of traders and algos, all of this seems so new and exciting, they can't help themselves but to overtrade on the flashing red headline.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (209957)	1/8/2025 10:50:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

re <<hmm what is math>> btw, little wonder Team Japan is nervous as it is actually absolutely naked and facing J20s and J35s, and actually already over-watched by a few J36s, J50s, and circled by 055s, 054s, 052s, and in crosshairs of DF-26s, DG27s, and DF17s., essentially wrapped within layers of gear stretching from under ocean surface all the way up to near-space. Oh, and never mind that the same share-buy-back fcktards delivered Abram tanks to Team ROC Taiwan without munitions bloomberg.com Rahm Emanuel Says US Defense Firms Cause Bigger Risks Than China* - Buybacks pose bigger risk than China, outgoing US envoy says - Delays in defense equipment shipments may hurt US alliances Rahm EmanuelPhotographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg American defense companies are hurting the nation’s security interests by prioritizing share buybacks over delivering weapons to the US military and its allies, according to the outgoing US envoy to Japan. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel said the firms are more focused on increasing their stock value than on investing in production capacity. This has contributed to delays in weapons shipments, which could harm US security and weaken American alliances, he said in an interview on Wednesday. “The US defense industry is a bigger risk to America’s security and the credibility of our deterrence than China is,” Emanuel said in Tokyo. Emanuel, who was confirmed as ambassador to Japan in 2021, said he had witnessed the damaging impact of years-long delays in defense equipment shipments on both the US military and its regional allies. “I can’t tell you how many times here I’ve had to use my political capital to cover for their failure,” he said. One solution — he added — would be to ban defense contractors from buying back their own stock for several years if they fail to deliver orders on time. Rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have fueled demand for defense products, benefiting companies like RTX Corp., Northrop Grumman Corp. and Lockheed Martin Corp. In 2023, Lockheed Martin and RTX spent a combined total of $18.9 billion on stock buybacks, compared with just $4.1 billion on capital expenditures, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Lockheed Martin and RTX didn’t respond to requests for comment, nor did Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics Corp., two other major defense contractors with stock buyback programs. Capital Use by Major US Defense Contractors in 2023 Source: data compiled by Bloomberg Contractors like Lockheed Martin, maker of the F-35 fighter jet, also are being hit with criticism from supporters of President-elect Donald Trump, who argue that the future of defense lies with high-tech innovators. Billionaire Elon Musk, an adviser to Trump on cost-cutting, has said that “some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35” in an age of drones. Emanuel’s remarks are some of the most strident among US officials about large stock buyback programs among defense contractors. Last year, Navy Secretary Carlos del Toro said defense companies should prioritize spending on shipyards over stock buybacks. One of most acute shortages is in shipbuilding, where the US now falls far behind China in its ability to expand its Navy or replace aging ships. While US military plans call for producing two nuclear-powered attack submarines each year, shipyards can currently only complete one. Navy Battle Force Ships Source: Congressional Research Service Note: Battle force ships comprise submarines, aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, frigates and corvettes Limits on manufacturing capacity and lengthy administrative procedures have also caused delays in delivering US defense equipment to allies such as Japan and Taiwan. The total value of arms purchased from the US but not yet delivered to Taiwan was estimated at $21.95 billion as of November, according to Cato Institute, a US think-tank. One problem was ensuring reliable government funding to give US contractors confidence that contracts would continue well into the future, said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at Rand Corp. “Think of how inconsistent Congress and the White House have been in recent memory with talking about building a huge Navy, only to never put the money behind those promises,” Hornung said. As it faced manufacturing delays, Washington has accelerated weapons shipments to Ukraine by drawing from American military stockpiles, including $1.25 billion in aid from US inventories announced by the Biden administration at the end of last year. The government is preparing a final $500 million in military assistance soon, Bloomberg News reported. The US has also dipped into its own supplies to send anti-tank missiles, sniper rifles and machine guns to Taiwan, Pentagon documents show. Japan today is one of the biggest buyers of US military hardware after it decided in 2022 to ramp up defense spending in response to growing threats from China and North Korea. Last week, the US approved the potential sale to Tokyo of as many as 1,200 air-to-air missiles produced by RTX for use on aircraft including the F-15 and F-35. The deal, which will likely take years to complete, still requires approval from Congress. Washington wants Japan to help produce more Patriot air-defense missiles to boost global inventories, but plans to increase production have stalled due to a shortage of component known as a seeker, which must be sent from the US. US defense equipment sales to Japan Source: Japan's Ministry of Defense Note: Figures from contracts under US Foreign Military Sales program Emanuel, who will end his term as ambassador next week and has two children in the US military, said chronic delays in weapons shipments were undermining the growing coordination among US allies to deter China’s military and letting down US service members. He criticized defense industry executives for consistently failing to fulfill promised orders on time without any accountability, and said it was time for them to “have some skin in the game.” “Your stock options will not be boosted based on stock buybacks until you fix this problem,” he added. — With assistance from Larry Liebert

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (209957)	1/8/2025 11:24:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

re <<hmm what is math>> ... I do not know, and am just watching the suspect MSM fcktards doing their thing, and yes, have those on my side of the pond also scmp.com China remains stuck in low consumer inflation for second year* Consumer price index rose 0.2 per cent last year, matching 2023 figure as lowest increase since 2009 Daisy Wu Published: 9:36am, 9 Jan 2025Updated: 12:17pm, 9 Jan 2025 Despite a series of aggressive fiscal stimulus measures, China’s consumer prices rose by just 0.2 per cent last year, with analysts noting that the world’s second-largest economy continues to face significant challenges in overcoming deflation and revitalising domestic demand. The consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, rose by 0.1 per cent year on year last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday – lower than the growth of 0.16 per cent estimated in a poll by Wind – after a 0.2 per cent increase in November. While the annual CPI reading remained in positive territory at 0.2 per cent, unchanged from the 0.2 per cent growth recorded in 2023, it matched the lowest level since 2009 and was well below the official control target of 3 per cent. Meanwhile, the producer price index (PPI), which tracks factory gate prices, fell by 2.3 per cent in December, in line with market expectations, marking the 27th consecutive month of decline. PPI fell by 2.2 per cent last year, following a 3.0 per cent decline in 2023. Economists and officials have said that while China has introduced more robust and coordinated stimulus measures amid growing economic headwinds, both domestic and global challenges could weigh on recovery efforts this year. In December, consumer goods prices fell by 0.2 per cent year on-year, while service prices rose by 0.5 per cent, with Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, saying the divergence implies China “is far from escaping disinflation”. Goldman Sachs noted in a report last year that “key obstacles to reviving the economy, such as subdued rental inflation, continue to limit the upwards potential of CPI growth”. The property sector downturn has not ended, which continues to weigh on consumer sentiment Zhang Zhiwei, Pinpoint Asset Management The investment bank forecast that China’s CPI inflation could rise to 0.8 per cent this year. Since April 2023, China’s CPI growth has hovered around zero, sparking market concerns about deflationary pressures and weak demand. Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that while recent economic data has stabilised, the momentum is not yet strong enough to create upwards pressure on consumer prices. “The property sector downturn has not ended, which continues to weigh on consumer sentiment,” Zhang said, adding that the inflation outlook largely depends on “the effectiveness of fiscal policy”. Beijing rolled out a series of measures last year to support the economy. However, the property market remains under stress and private sector confidence is weak. A spokesman for the NBS recently highlighted geopolitical risks to global energy and commodity supplies and the spillover effects of macroeconomic adjustments in major economies as uncertainties heading into 2025. Beijing has acknowledged these risks. In a statement released following the recent annual central economic work conference, policymakers identified “promoting domestic consumption” as a top priority for economic work this year. A stronger push for trade-in programmes recently reflected the weak performance of producer prices and industrial sectors, Ng noted, “as sluggish demand continues to drive price wars”. In the CPI breakdown, food prices decreased by 0.5 per cent year on year, while non-food prices increased by 0.2 per cent. The price of pork – the mainstay of Chinese diets – rose 12.5 per cent, while fruit prices fell 3.0 per cent, and vegetable prices climbed 0.5 per cent. However, prices in other categories declined. For instance, household appliance prices dropped by 3.3 per cent, housing rents fell by 0.3 per cent, and car prices decreased by 4.2 per cent. Beijing is expected to release its inflation and gross domestic product targets, as well as its budget deficit ratio and local bond quota, at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in early March. A research report released by Peking University last week said this year’s economic growth target is expected to be set at around 5 per cent, the same as last year, with stabilising growth remaining a key focus of economic policy.