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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Klein who wrote (3398)	2/22/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Subject: LAMR Eric, Thanks for your note on Lamar. I never shorted this one, though I did throw away a couple grand on the July 25 puts, which will expire worthless (unless a miracle occurs). I haven't had time to look at CCU, so I appreciate the information you provided. The fact that the management of the two companies reportedly spent a weekend together makes it sound as though a friendly takeover could be possible. What was most alarming to me was that this stock was perhaps moving up on this speculation, even though to my knowledge this was never public knowledge. Maybe these rumors made it into a newspaper somewhere, and it was public, but as there are no discussion boards following this stock, I was unaware of the takeover rumor until one of the firms following them finally mentioned that they had become overpriced on such speculation. Is there a lesson here in general? Should we not short (or buy puts) in companies that aren't widely followed, because we won't hear about rumors? I'm currently fully invested in other shorts, so I really can't take a position in LAMR now. However, even if there is a merger, it make be a takeunder. If it is a takeover, and a short position loses money, it could be followed-up by a short of CCU. Are there any guides for valuing media companies, such as CCU? I guess one could simply compare them with other firms in the same business. When I get some spare time, I want to look at cable t.v. companies. (I think ADLAC may be a good short, based on their losses and their very high subscription rates.)