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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ajtj99 who wrote (88981)1/8/2025 3:27:13 PM
From: Tweets Boar Hog  Respond to of 96716
 
Not w/r to BCOMNG, I have tracked BCOMNG, Boil, Kold and cont in a spreadsheet daily, since mid August.

The average daily 2X track is pretty darn good. Proshares take a bit out for profits as they say they do.

So BCOMNG is currently 42 and Boil is 56. If BCOMNG goes to 60, Boil should hit 100 plus.

We C eh?

Tweets



To: ajtj99 who wrote (88981)1/8/2025 4:11:55 PM
From: Tweets Boar Hog1 Recommendation

Recommended By
JSD

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 96716
 
Here is a back dated example, during an intermediate term uptrend.

2021 BCOMNG Low = ~ 120
8/19/2022 BCOMNG High = ~ 395
Multiplier = ~ 3.29X

2021 Boil Low = ~ 1705
~ 6/10/2022 Boil High = ~ 14050
~ 8/19/2022 Boil Lower High = ~ 12300
Multiplier Using High= ~ 8.24
Multiplier Using Lower High = ~ 7.21

So Boil over a 1.5 yr plus time frame beat the 2X track w/r to BCOMNG. Soundly. The reason relates to the mathematics in that during a strong uptrend, the % gains do some compounding. And each daily % gain is w/r to a higher number. When it goes the other way, same deal to the downside.

I have not tracked BCOMNG long enough to decide, and have limited LT charts, the more dominant decay I think is in BCOMNG. I am not necessarily expecting BCOMNG to retrace to 400 here, least not right away. Maybe in future years, given where I think NG is eventually going.

BCOMNG since its inception has not been reweighted, to my knowledge. But that could happen.

Tweets