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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3400)	2/22/1998 4:55:00 PM
From: CJ Quantumwell	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Hi Roger, I am working in the telecom industry. The standard of telecom is very high. Bit error rate is around 1E-12. ( Somebody may tell me what is the error rate allowed in internet.) Reliablity is extremely important and no downtime is allowed in the system. Therefore, not only hardware but also the software with the system play equally important roles. Big companies are usually very careful and conservative about the system they sell. Hence, they are slow. As far as hardware parts are concerned, CIEN did stun the big boys by commercializing 2.5G 8 and 16 wavelengths DWDM first. Therefore, it did grab some of the markets first. However, it has been close to a year that CIEN doesn't have the highest capacities in the industry. ( the bragging right) Nortel can do 80Gb/s in one fiber and CIEN can only do 40Gb/s. ( only commercially available products count)However, this fact is usually ignored by the CIEN bulls. Nortel also have 160Gb/s demo done and CIEN says it will have 40 channel DWDM at 2.5Gb/s , ie. , 100Gb/s which will not be the leader in capacitywise and it is not easy to achieve with current components they have. All other heavy weights are trying to present their 16 or 32 channels at 2.5Gb/s and they can all do it. As far as software parts are concerned, it needs time to prove the OAM&P softwares are viable. We shall see how their softwares perform in the system. I deeply believe telecom industry will keep prospering and CIEN will participate in the boom. However, no controlling the key components in the optical system and fighting with all big boys to keep afloat, the current price is still not cheap. If you like this industry, JDS should be a good choice, which sells the optical components to big telecom equipment companies and with no big competition at all. BTW, I enjoy and learn quite a lot from your posts. The above is just my sincere two cents. CJ