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To: John Carpenter who wrote (12375)	2/22/1998 1:30:00 AM
From: Jack Be Quick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>>What's tough about investing is that no matter how much experience/training/knowledge you may have, no one really knows what's going to happen tomorrow. But I guess that's what makes it exciting too.<< John, Personally, I think that one of the reasons it is so exciting (and why the analysts have such a difficult time calling it, as is also being discussed here), is that the game as it is currently played bears more resemblance to a game of "chicken" than to anything one might reasonably call investing. For instance, if the O&G stocks we follow currently offered a substantial dividend yield, say 10%, and if we "invested" in them on that basis, the panic selling that we recently experienced would not have occurred, imo. We'd have looked at the analysts comments that have been cited here (as bad calls) and at the kind of news and info that is posted here every day, decided that "the fundamentals haven't changed", concluded that the dividend was secure for the foreseeable future, and gone on to other things, such as speculating on what to do in Iraq. But you don't get hail marys and quick 5-baggers on a dividend payout (also many fewer commissionable sales for brokerage houses). So, we 90's style investors all jump on a stock (or a sector), start racing it up (toward the cliff), and wait to see who's going to be "chicken" and jump first. If some of us jump a little early and the stock keeps rising, we feel bad because we "missed the runup". If we are nimble and jump off just before the plunge, we are brilliant "trader/investors". If we hold on too long, and go over the cliff with the stock, we are either (a) in need of meds and a quick hail mary to turn things around, or (b) "long-term" investors with confidence in the fundamental outlook. Basically, as I see it, these non-dividend paying stock shares have the same intrinsic value as the pile of old newspapers I have out in my living room. If I could drum up some interest in how fast the pile is "growing" (like, will tomorrows paper be thick, thin, or inline with estimates), and get the pile of papers (symbol:POP) listed on an exchange, I'm sure that in no time I would have investors trading futures options on them with great nerve and skill, using sophisticated TA techniques to help them with their timing. Which is the kind of thing that can be very exciting when one has real money involved. I also have an idea that it might be an idiotic way for a nation of people to save for the future, but who knows. Happy investing, John