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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3405)	2/22/1998 5:29:00 AM
From: Yamakita	Respond to of 18691

Someone with some free time may want to take a look at Mim Corporation (Nasdaq: MIMS), a pharmacy management company. They've been on a steady decline from 17.5 to Friday's close of 5.5, and someone just dumped 3.3 million shares in late January. They just reported a huge loss with the loss of their major source of revenue, TennCare, a healthcare provider in Tennessee. Currently bleeding copious amounts of red. Vice Chairman has just quit. November 10Q couldn't be bleaker. They are due to report on Monday; the two analysts covering are looking for a loss of $0.28. Could be much more than that. "For the nine months ended 9/97, revenues fell 21% to $165 million. Net loss fell 93% to $1.8 million. Revenues reflect the restructure of a major TennCare contract. Earnings reflect the absence of a $26.6 million executive stock option compensation charge."

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3405)	2/22/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 18691

Roger, I thought that DOW should revisit 6500-7000 two months ago and I have changed my mind. I don't think that DOW will go down below 7000 (maybe not even 7400) before they climb up to 10000, unless the fundamentals of US economy suddenly changes. I believe that the market is clearly overvalued (but I am not a bear) but the momemtum is still bullish. That's why I am only holding 2 issues right now (sold DELL etc last week) and wait for some good opportunity to get in again. A few words on DELL. It's indeed ridiculous that the issue has similar market cap as GM. However, the momemtum is on its way to push DELL to 140 in the near term. As long as DELL keeps beating estimate, it will grow. Maybe 200 by the end of the year. Who knows? Whenever DELL misses, it will get at 30%+ haircut in a hurry. So if I were a bear, I would not short DELL until it misses numbers. You will miss, say 5 points by shorting a day earlier, but you still have 10-20 points to make later. Just my two cents. BTW, last time I checked my trades, I found that I have rarely traded an issue with a P/E under 20. I just pursued growth companies too much and I am very comfortable with a PE growth ratio at well below 1 (unless the issue misses earnings). I just found that making $ is easy with these companies. Oh, I also very much disagree with you opinion on CYMI. I bought CYMI at 15 the day they released earnings and sold them at 21 1/2 within a week due to technical tone. CYMI is not a scam and beginning next year, it will improve its fundamentals dramatically and I strongly believe that it will reach 50 by 2000. I will probably buy this issue in the next several months. good luck, larry