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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Helios who wrote (1414)	2/22/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: Gary Korn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

Here is an interesting post by a fellow, Sergem, in the Motley Fool boards . . . [he] is predicting 25 in 1998 for CIEN and backs it up with some interesting analysis . . . Any comments? Helios, I have a comment. I don't know where CIEN's stock price ends in 1998, but I do know that Sergem's post is just plain wrong on two issues: (1) new customers and (2) kind of product that it is shipping. At to the new customer issue, Sergem states: Well it becomes pretty clear that CIEN has not won ANY new customers apart of its two early wins at Sprint and Worldcom. This is false. The CIEN 10Q states: During the first quarter of 1998, the Company also recognized initial product acceptance and revenue recognition from: o MultiWave Sentry systems supplied to Mercury Communications Limited, a U.K. based subsidiary of Cable and Wireless Communications Group ("Cable and Wireless") . . . o Teleway Japan Corporation ("Teleway") . . . o Japan Telecom Co., Ltd ("Japan Telecom") networks in Japan. Sergem also states that CIEN only has a 16-channel product. However, the 10Q advises that some revenue in the near term will be from its 40-channel and 24-channel products: The Company expects revenues, in the near term to be largely dependent upon sales to Sprint, several new customers and depending on the results of ongoing testing and evaluation, AT&T Corporation ("AT&T") and to be largely derived from sales of the MultiWave Sentry and new product sales of the MultiWave 4000, the Company's 40 channel version of the MultiWave Sentry, and the MultiWave Firefly(TM), the Company's short distance 24 channel product. Gary Korn

To: Helios who wrote (1414)	2/22/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 12623

<< Here is an interesting post by a fellow, Sergem, in the Motley Fool boards made on Feb. 4. >> This guy Sergem made a lot of claims. He listed $500 million spent by Woldcom in 1997 from Nortel for 8 channel OC-192. He then listed $150 million for CIEN. Listening to the conference call I thought I heard the CEO of CIEN say that WCOM purchased $180 million in equipment from CIEN in 1997. (Once again correct me if my memory fails to serve me). What's $30 million here or there. Furthermore I suppose it's possible that NT sold $500 million of WDM products to WCOM in 1997 but I am rather skeptical of that claim. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Savage, MD. --January 8, 1997-- CIENA Corporation announced today that it has signed a contract with WorldCom, Inc. to be its exclusive supplier of dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) systems through 1997. CIENA has completed a successful field trial with WorldCom, Inc. and deployment will begin immediately. ciena.com A) WCOM breached their contract with CIEN by purchasing WDM equipment from NT B) The press release is wrong C) Sergem doesn't know what he is talking about and can't be trusted for reliable information I'm open to hear someone clear up this little $500 million technicality.