To: John Mansfield who wrote (1100 ) 2/23/1998 4:36:00 PM From: John Mansfield Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9818
UK Financial Times: 2000 problem simply is not seen as a potential international emergency MONDAY FEBRUARY 23 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ From Mr Martyn Thomas.<Picture: Write to the Editor> Sir, You have reported on concerns that the UK's effort to beat the millennium bomb is losing pace and urgency. In reality, no sense of urgency has yet been created. For 18 months, up to December last year, I led the Year 2000 service line for Deloitte Consulting worldwide. I have seen dozens of year 2000 projects in some of the largest companies in the world. Most companies had not finished analysing the extent of the risks they faced or the cost of repair or protection. In every case, estimates increased as the risks became better understood. Forecasts of the impact of problems are based on survey answers by companies that have not finished their estimates, provided by managers who underestimate the problem. Most problems will not be found in time, but 2000 is not yet seen as a potential international emergency. Will the limited resources be focused on ensuring that power, water, transport and food are available and that emergency services continue to operate? Will there be serious and long-lasting infrastructure failures? No one knows, but there is a substantial risk. There is plenty of evidence that the scale of the risk has not been recognised by governments. Emu-related computer system changes are taking priority in many companies, yet Emu could be delayed and monetary union will be tested to breaking point if there is a deep global recession early next century. The government could have announced that there will be no more legislation that would require widespread computer developments this century. The public sector could have shown leadership in tackling the problems with visible urgency, but keeping to spending limits has been given higher priority. In your leader "East Asian shipwreck" (February 16) you write in another context: "This is a world of panic. Once panic begins, each investor rationally wants to escape before all the others." In the run-up to the end of the century, against a background of increasing computer system failures, what assets will investors want to hold? How soon will the rational investor want to escape? Martyn Thomas, Holly Lawn, Prospect Place, Bath BA2 4QP, UKft.com