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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (210705)	1/29/2025 7:33:14 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217544

re <<That's an equivalent lease rate of 6.9%>> over the last 20 / 40 years gold beat bonds, already, and now, at 6.9% equivalent lease rate, more attractive over shorter duration I wonder what the Swiss thinking? kitco.com Gold second top investment for Swiss federal pension fund in 2024 imagine when once other sovereign retirement funds starts saving / investing / speculating in gold

To: bull_dozer who wrote (210705)	1/29/2025 8:23:41 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217544

*>> THE FCKING FCKS* Gold Holds Decline After Powell Flags Pause in Fed Easing Cycle Sybilla Gross 30 January 2025 at 09:33 GMT+9 Gold held a slight decline after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials won’t rush to lower US interest rates, adding that the central bank is pausing easing to see further progress on inflation. Bullion traded near $2,760 an ounce, within about $30 of its all-time high. On Wednesday it eased 0.2%, as the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates unchanged. Powell told reporters that the US economy remains strong and borrowing costs are no longer as much of a restraint on activity as previously. Following the comments, swaps traders pared back their expectations for rate reductions this year by pricing in 43 basis points of cuts compared with 48 before, with the first reduction not expected until mid-2025. Higher rates tend to pose a headwind for gold, as it doesn’t pay interest. The Fed’s stance comes as President Donald Trump casts considerable uncertainty over the broader economic outlook by threatening to slap tariffs on imports and promising to lower taxes, both of which could put upward pressure on inflation. When asked about the potential impacts of the new administration’s policies, Powell said the central bank was in a “wait-and-see” mode. Spot gold was little changed at $2,759.39 an ounce at 8:16 a.m. in Singapore. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.2%. Silver was steady, while platinum and palladium rose.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (210705)	1/29/2025 9:29:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217544

*>> THE FCKING FCKS* From behind paywall zerohedge.com PREMIUM "This Time Is Different?" - Top Goldman Trader Asks "What Causes Most Pain From Here" BY TYLER DURDEN THURSDAY, JAN 30, 2025 - 01:05 AM "This time is different?" asks Goldman Sachs trader/strategist Paolo Schiavone, as he reflect on what happens next after two years of 25% gains... [url=][/url] The starting point is two years of 25% returns in the SPX. However, that 25% figure does not tell the full story. Technology stocks have underperformed since July, prompting investors to shift further away in the risk frontier. Moving further out of their comfort zone, investors transitioned into AI application and second derivatives names like Vistra or Constellation yday down c30%. [url=][/url] Smaller stocks, which saw valuations increase tenfold to become large-cap stocks, have gained liquidity but lack that same liquidity during downturns. The risk lies in a significant selloff among these peripheral names. What if substantial equity supply is offer by the end of the week as CIOs/Risk management re-asses their exposure to a concentrated investment? Realized volatility is an additional constrain when the cost of leverage in NQH5 is high. If NVDA experienced a 52% decline in 2022, it wouldn’t surprise you that Carvana dropped 97% in the same year. This highlights how reflexivity in large-cap names can be amplified when liquidity dries up, especially in low liquid small names. Looking back, in 2000, Maersk gained 30%, and Boeing added approximately 25%. The question is whether investor here show a preference for safety/ defensive/ bonds and even cyclicals. What causes the most pain from here is a 25% correction in the Nasdaq. However, such a scenario seems unlikely based on the current state of the U.S. economy: U.S. real final demand in the private sector growing at 3% for the last three years. GDP has been growing at around 3% for the past nine quarters. The most significant hiking cycle (from 0% to 5%) had minimal impact on the economy. Household debt as a percentage of GDP has declined from 100% to around 70%, with leverage concentrated in government debt. U.S. credit metrics are improving, as evidenced by SYF, COF, DFS, AXP, and ALLY charge-offs and delinquency data. Owner-Equivalent Rent (OER) should act as a tailwind for disinflation, potentially pulling the front end of the curve lower. Overall, assuming that “the government can always borrow because they make the rules,” there appear to be limited themes left in U.S. rates apart from my highest conviction the great steepening. For example, the SFRZ6/US30Y spread can get to 250bps... [url=][/url] In U.S. rates, “10s are excessively expensive on the curve - profits will only come if the Fed cuts aggressively. Therefore, the best strategy is to focus on the front end if you expect this scenario.” The most interesting rates market, however, is Japan.