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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3416)	2/22/1998 10:56:00 PM
From: Eric Klein	Respond to of 18691

Roger, CIEN - There seems to be a lot of support for CIEN, though I think "CJ Quantumwell" probably gave people something to think about in his thoughtful post. I think one stock that everyone can agree to hate is Optical Cable, OCCF. They are overvalued: p/e > 63, p/s > 9, 16% sales growth, 4% earnings growth, earnings disappointed last quarter. This stock was a successful short for me in mid '96 after they came public without the help of an investment bank and made a lot of promises that they weren't able to keep. They try to play the hype game, but aren't very good at it. Two analysts follow them, both have a HOLD rating. During the last year the stock price has oscillated between 8 and 15. They're at 12 3/4 now. I don't believe that they're going to make it to 15 on this trip, the chart looks weak. I look for a return to 8 or 9 even if the market stays up or even moves up.