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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bill c. who wrote (1440)	2/22/1998 10:36:00 PM
From: bill c.	Respond to of 12623

This is old news but Worldcom has been testing Lucent's 16 channel system.... ... Designed by Bell Labs, Lucent's Metro OLS provides a wide range of interface options - OC-3, 12 and 48 SONET rates, as well as any data rate or format in the 150-750 Megabit per second range via the Broadband Optical Translator Unit (OTU). The Metro OLS solution supports up to 16 wavelengths configured in a wide variety of network architectures - including ring, linear and flexible add/drop -- and supports span distances of up to 132 kilometers. "With OC-3 and OC-12 accounting for more than half of the metropolitan traffic, service providers require a solution that provides a broad range of interfaces found in Lucent's Metro OLS," says Scott Grout, vice president of Lucent's SONET and Optical Networking business. "We are pleased to be delivering on our promise to provide a totally flexible solution for the metro environment." Lucent's OLS system currently is undergoing technical evaluation by WorldCom, Inc. WorldCom's test program includes the interoperability of Lucent's system with terminals from other network suppliers. Earlier this month, Lucent announced OLS agreements with British Telecom (BT plc) and China's Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications. lucent.com

To: bill c. who wrote (1440)	2/23/1998 3:09:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

<< When Lucent was part of AT&T they never got an order from Sprint, WCOM, etc because of the competition with AT&T-long-distance >> Ahh, but LU was spun-off months before CIEN's 1st piece of WDM equipment was ever deployed in a live network. When LU was spun off CIEN had zero revenues. << How many customers were about to sign with CIEN when Lucent announced their system? >> I doubt companies that are set to buy CIEN's WDM products will suddenly decide that they need to hold off for the Lucent products. I suppose it could hurt CIEN because the companies they are negotiating with might try to get a better price now that they can say they have another option in several months. Some won't be willing to wait for Lucents offering because they won't be able to just throw it into a network. LU's product will need lot's of testing just like CIEN. LU will probably have some available for testing before the 4Q though. They already announced testing with T right now. You have to understand also that just because LU has this 80 channel wonder that they are talking about doesn't mean that there will be deployments of 80 channels in every network. If 80 channels will be so necessary by Q4 then how come WCOM is set with 16 channel till the end of the year? I'm not even sure 80 channels will be needed in 9 months. (Knock on wood) I think CIEN's 40 channel system will be around for a long time and will not even be close to obsoleted by Lucent's product. I think it was just a case of mine is bigger than yours. I'll tell you what. If by Q4 carriers will need all 80 channels sooooo baaaad, then that will mean that bandwith needs have exploded so fast that CIEN will probably have already sold hundreds of systems with 40 channels. Can you imagine networks that currently run at 40Gb/s getting so constrained that they will all of a sudden need 200-400Gb/s per fiber in several months? What will they do between 40Gb/s-200Gb/s? I'll tell you what they would do. They would probably buy CIEN's scalable 100Gb/s product in the mean time because they wouldn't be able to wait for LU to get their stuff tested and into the network. Then by the time their needs grew to 80 channel levels CIEN would probably announce 80 channel of their own. Why wait for Lucent in Q4 when you can buy something from CIEN to tide you over, knowing that they plan to scale their system up as well? Of course this is all just an exercise I am going through to make a point. I don't think by the end of 1998 there will be very many 80 channel systems in deployment. There will still be plenty of 16 channels probably. Furthermore if you listened to CIEN's CC the CEO said in kind of a subtle way that CIEN will have no problem doing 80 channels soon. He said it in a crafty way so that if you knew a little about WDM and you were paying attention you would understand what he was getting at. He also stressed that CIEN's WDM offerings are quite scalable just like the LU offering that was announced.