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Politics : Canadian Political Free-for-All -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: abuelita who wrote (33891)	2/10/2025 2:15:41 PM
From: longz	Respond to of 37403

From ChatGPT AI===>> what in point form does this mean for canada?... Trump says he'll decide this weekend whether he wants to increase US gasoline prices by 14%, since crude oil makes up 57% of the retail price of gasoline. With a 25% import tariff on Canadian crude oil, US refiners will have a choice of: a.) continuing to use WCS (West Canada Select) heavy-sour crude recently priced at $55.90 per barrel, or $69.88 including Trump's 25% tariff; b.) or using WTI (West Texas Intermediate) light-sweet crude recently priced at $70.24 per barrel. - economicdashboard.alberta.ca Choice b is both more costly than the 25% proposed tariff and would also leave much of the $2 trillion of investment in US refinery process plants unused after down-time for rebuilding to bypass these process units not needed to process fracked US light-sweet crude oil. . The US-Canada oil trade is the world's largest bilateral energy trade relationship. US refineries have invested in more complex refinery configurations, which allow them to use much cheaper feedstock than US light-sweet fracked oil. Canada produces mostly heavier and sour crude oil, while the US produces mostly light, sweet crude oil. . Trump Voters explicitly said they didn't have enough price inflation. Having so far doubled the price of eggs, a 14% increase in gasoline prices could be the next form of winning. Trump promised he'll be winning so that his voters will literally beg him to stop winning. — That I believe. ChatGPT said: If Trump imposes a 25% import tariff on Canadian crude oil, the key impacts for Canada would be: Economic & Energy Trade Impacts: Increased cost for Canadian oil exports: WCS crude would become 25% more expensive for U.S. refiners. Reduced competitiveness of Canadian crude: U.S. refiners may look for alternatives, though WTI is still more expensive. Potential decline in Canadian oil exports: If U.S. demand drops due to higher costs, Canada may need to find new buyers. Disruption to the world's largest bilateral energy trade: The U.S. is Canada's biggest oil customer, and a tariff could strain trade relations. Refinery & Market Reactions: U.S. refiners face a tough choice: Pay 25% more for Canadian crude or Use more expensive WTI, which is not ideal for their complex refineries. Refinery investments at risk: U.S. refineries are built for heavy crude, and switching to lighter WTI could leave billions in investments unused or require costly modifications. Potential oil supply chain disruptions: A shift away from Canadian oil could increase price volatility in North America. Price & Inflation Consequences: Higher U.S. gasoline prices: The cost increase could lead to a 14% rise in U.S. gasoline prices, affecting consumers. Potential inflation spillover into Canada: Higher oil prices in the U.S. may push up energy costs in Canada, impacting inflation and transportation costs. Impact on Canadian oil revenue: If export volumes drop, Canada’s oil revenues could take a hit. Geopolitical & Trade Considerations: Strained Canada-U.S. relations: A trade dispute over energy could emerge, adding to tensions from previous tariffs (e.g., softwood lumber). Opportunities for diversification: Canada may accelerate efforts to sell more oil to Asia (via TMX pipeline) or Europe to reduce reliance on the U.S. Political leverage for Canada: Canada supplies a critical share of U.S. crude imports—this could give Ottawa room to negotiate exemptions or retaliate with countermeasures. Bottom Line for Canada: Bad for oil exports & revenue Bad for trade relations Possible short-term oil price surge benefiting producers Long-term incentive for Canada to reduce reliance on the U.S. market 4o O