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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (3596)	2/22/1998 11:39:00 PM
From: My Father's Son	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Has anyone else noticed that one particular fellow seems to get through each week? Today he was the first caller. He may have been on yesterday, but no later than last week. Talk about rambling. I wanted to grab him by the shirt and say, "Ask your question and shut up!" Sorry, just sort of irritated me. I'll get my prescription filled tomorrow. DMM

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (3596)	2/24/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: MrCash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

More on Timing Model Parameters: What I'm hoping is that it is possible to zero in on which component of the model that was responsible for the sharp upward prediction and from that one might surmise how that component is determined. I guess I can add to Bob's positive indicators as I look at past performance in predicting Bear markets should we enter one soon.... What I would find interesting to know is what has changed in Brinker's timing model since 1987 where Bob went to cash near the bottom and that single act has caused his Aggressive model portfolio to underperform (1.9% per year thru 11/30/96 vs the Wilshire 5000 according to "The Hulbert Financial Digest"). I am sure Bob has adjusted the model for account for this early miss as he has been oh so accurate on corrections since. Also, my suspicion is there are many more components to the timing model than just 4 variables as some suggest....Just look at the newsletter and the space he affords M2 and M3. These surely have to be part of the model along with sentiment, valuation, inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, money flow into stocks vs bonds, cash level in mutual funds and probably more if I think more. From my vantage point, I think the BIG change that might have swayed Bob was inflation as Bob correctly gauged that the Asian problems would lower inflation but not sink the ship and actually be a positive as it also caused sentiment to go more positive. How he ever can call his buying levels from all this data is still beyond me, but I think I see why his timing model caused him to get very excited and call for the "buying opportunity" rather than "the start of a bear market". regards Kirk out