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Biotech / Medical : MGI Pharma MOGN New patents, anti cancer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (730)	2/23/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: seminole	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1826

Peter Wow, 2% chance to be a monster drug. I like those odds. I remember ten years ago when the NCI said ther was no chance (0%) and no funding for this drug. Ten years of going past patients at the cancer center at UCSD has taught me one thing, this drug has no competition. All we need is approval. richard

To: Biomaven who wrote (730)	2/23/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1826

Peter, I think your guesstimate analysis is as good as any and fairly consistent with the percentages seen in the industry in general. Don't get me wrong I would like nothing better than to see MGI 114 turn our to be a major weapon in the war against cancer. The fight against cancer is very personal to me as I lost my Dad to colon cancer 4 years ago after a long struggle. How many families have not been hurt by this incideous and indiscriminate killer. So lets go shrink some tumors! V1

To: Biomaven who wrote (730)	2/27/1998 11:37:00 AM
From: David Cathcart	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1826

Peter, Thanks for your efforts in estimating the prospects of MGI-114 in your February 23rd post. Needless to say, we do have a lot of uncertainty, as well as potential, with that drug and that's why I think the European deal will be such an important event. I hope your 75% probability estimate for that event proves to be conservative. For my 2 cents, here is what I see happening over the next few months: Q1 (the present quarter): I don't expect any additional news regarding Salagen, MGI-114 or the European deal. Based on what was said in December and in the recent conference call, we are beginning the hit the MTD for MGI-114 in phase I, but they are likely going up one more level to prove that is the case. We should be at that next higher level now or very soon, but it will take time to complete the regimen and analyze the results. In December Blitzer said that he expects the announcement of the European deal for MGI-114 to be soon before or soon after the beginning of phase II. Thus, that also should not take place until next quarter. It is interesting that he was unusually specific (for Blitzer) regarding the timing of the European deal. That could mean that he is actually quite far along in the negotiations and the interested parties all want to commence any deal with the advent of phase II. I expect another slight loss for the quarter as the MGI will not be actively promoting Salagen for Sjogren's until the April 1st. Q2 (beginning April 1st): This should be a very interesting quarter. The company will be actively promoting Salagen for Sjogren's, MGI-114 should progress into phase II in the trials and, I think, the European deal will be announced. Rick Harmon had said in an earlier post that the NCI is as slow as molasses, so I have no idea how quickly we should expect them to begin their own trials once phase II has begun. But their involvement could also begin next quarter. I'm not familiar enough with clinical trials to speculate about the progression of events in phase II. How quickly do they typically move? Anyone? The Salagen promotion will happen. If positive MGI-114 events begin to happen, we could see a real surge in the share price of MOGN. I expect a profit for this quarter but that will depend on the European deal becoming a reality. Q3 & Q4: The crystal ball is very cloudy. Sales of Salagen for Sjogren's could take off quicker or slower (unlikely but possible) than the company is projecting. Worldwide sales of Salagen for head & neck should be kicking in. We could, I assume, begin seeing positive results from MGI-114 phase II. MGI-114 could begin to bomb out (I hate to acknowledge that). INFeD sales could be adding significant revenue. The Wildcard: There is a lot of money in the till, Blitzer has a track record of making deals and he is not known for sitting on his hands. Something unexpected could happen and, if so, let's hope it adds value to our MOGN shares. The Bottom Line: IMO, anyone who likes MOGN should have their position secure by the end of this quarter. IMHO, an investor could have to pay a lot more for a share in Q2. Thoughts anyone? David