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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (10019)	2/23/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Dear Duane, Shane hasn't done a "pretty good" job of laying out the long-term scenario for LSI. Shane has done a superior job. The point of the contest was not to genuflect before Tom Kurlack but rather to enhance the perspectives of the participants on this thread. Shane has done a wonderful job of informing people on this thread of LSI's potential future, but the next level I would like to approach is the potential pitfalls in LSI's future as well as a deeper look into the decision making process that goes into purchasing LSI than a competitors. Rather than exchange barbs, I would really like to see an exchange of the best information available, and quite frankly I do see a lot of very good worthwhile information on this thread. I feel that one of the ways to enhance this is to take a hard look at the future, and I feel that a good way to do that is through a contest. Now, with regard to analysts. I've basically been participating in some form or another in conference calls for about twenty years. Analysts come in all shapes and sizes. Some are myopic and some are visionary. But as I have stated on this thread in the past, they are punished much more severely for being wrong than they are rewarded for being right. As such, they tend to stay in the pack with their estimates. One who does not is Kurlack. Say what you will, but the man has conjales, and I respect him for that. Moreover, I don't believe that he is manipulating the market on his initial call for the benefit of his institutional customers. Why? Take a look at the volume post Kurlack announcement. Those huge blocks ain't the little guy bailing out. They are institutions. Moreover, as Shane has correctly observed, predicting semi growth (or lack of it) is much much harder than predicting the growth of KO or MO. Semi technology can often leapfrog "next generation" technology leaving a company holding the bag. ( Can you spell VTSS?) But over time, investment in the semi group has and will continue to prove to be a very wise decision for the foreseeable future. Where does this leave me? I trade this dog, and I hold long term this show pony. Where do I feel LSI will be on March 1, 1999? The price will be 56. The earnings for 1998 will be $1.14. The estimated earnings for '99 will be $1.79. And the estimated earnings for '00 will be $2.50. At today's price, I would be very reluctant to wait for "visibility" on LSI's earnings. Mr Soros looks for a thirty percent return on his money in eighteen months. Will LSI be above $32.50 in eighteen months? Bet the house and the back forty on that. Last year LSI went up to $45 with the same prospects, and those prospects are a year closer and really no less dim. So there, I've just entered my own contest, and if I win, I will award myself a dozen PoDos--if Wallgreen's still sells them. Good luck and good health