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To: Thean who wrote (12566)	2/23/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Basically, you're right. But even in the rubble of the destroyed oil patch, you can find gemstones. As well, many people are looking for average down entry points. If you're a LT player, 6 months is nothin... ST players recognize that unless your short, this is not the place to be long for very long. Ask glen for some of his meds...<grin>.

To: Thean who wrote (12566)	2/23/1998 12:15:00 PM
From: Swede	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

WE're driving YOU nuts? If you want a definition of volatility, read the almost back-to-back posts of you, Beeble, and other TAs following good days and bad days over the past two months. Six months of "idle" money may be a trader's idea of hell, but to a longer term investor, making decisions based on panic is worse.

To: Thean who wrote (12566)	2/23/1998 12:15:00 PM
From: Bazmataz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Thean - you and I have agreed on this point for some time. I don't know WHAT to think when people are saying that stocks are "holding up well" when down 3-5% today. GLM may be "holding well", down only 3-4%, but it was down similarly on Friday and is nearing lows. I can't understand why some on this thread keep seeing "strength" in what is the classic definition of weakness - sector weakness, that is. As you point out, even the technicals are unreliable - another sign that should raise a red flag in everyone's mind. Whenever I ask why people expect strength or expect "a runup", I rarely get a feasible response. The best reason I can think of is that there's much more bad news in this sector than in virtually any other. So a turnaround play may be in order, but turnarounds can be risky. I'm happy continuing to ST trade or daytrade these stocks, but that's only because of volatility - and really nothing else. Yes, LT we may all do well. In 50 years, we'll all be looking back and saying, "Gee, why didn't I load up on those stocks when I was 30?" Meanwhile, DELL, CPQ, INTC, MSFT all continue to make tons of money for its lucky investors... BC

To: Thean who wrote (12566)	2/23/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thean, I find your post almost incredible! This sector is a value play, pure and simple. Value plays are stocks that the market has underestimated because of its short-sightedness. While the fundamentals are excellent, this sector is not a growth industry because there is only a finite amount of oil. Virtually all of the companies in the sector have very strong cashflows which are expected to increase for the foreseeable future. Hence the value. Therefore, the turn-around hinges on the perceptions of the marketplace toward the sector, not a change in the fundamentals of the sector. Nobody can predict when those perceptions will change. But I believe that patience will be amply rewarded. Regards, Paul

To: Thean who wrote (12566)	2/23/1998 3:11:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Thean, while you may be right about these stocks being dead money for 6 mos. or more, I'd remind that people were saying the same thing about techs in Dec. What's worse, there were MANY people saying that it looked like it's very possible that "This great Bull" is over, that techs would stay in a prolonged bear market, and threads on SI popped up all over called "trading a bear market", etc. These weren't dead threads either, they received a lot of interested posters/lurkers (including me). The fact is, WS is very difficult to predict, and so far we haven't heard of the big oils say that they're cutting back on E&P. DK