To: AL R who wrote (4726 ) 2/23/1998 5:08:00 PM From: Kerm Yerman Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24921
Al R / Oil over Gas - Not now, but maybe very shortly The price of oil is dictating how the shares in oil dominant companies perform. Ease of tension in the Near East will permit the price of oil to drop to new lows. Based upon the news today, that is what is in progress. The price of shares in these oil dominant companies are already depressed. I wouldn't advise to sell any growing company at this point in time. Why sell now, most shares have suffered the worst of their decline. On the other hand, it will be a big plus to have bought into depressed shares when oil is selling at or near its low. There is no better time to be buying. I anticipate shares to be cheap when the oil dips below $14.50 - if that is to occur. By cheap, I mean share price comparison to the company's net asset value, or breakup value value per share. You have got to believe oil prices at these lower levels are short term. You've got to check out the dips in oil prices over the last 10-15 years. Oil prices will be at historic low levels and there is tremendous upside just to get back to the average over this period of time. Oil dominant companies will be highly leveraged for above average returns. Understand this. I'm talking about the companies who can grow production and reserves. Those companies in my listings are hopefully in that category. There are many companies I wouldn't buy into, regardless of the scenario. You don't hear about most of them because I don't favor them over what I have already listed. It will be rare to see me list a sell on a company that exists in the listings. The companies which have been suspect to me, have already been eliminated from the listings. I make announcements of selling at the time I determine the transaction should be made. So, oil over gas will be my position if the price of oil dips to the $14.50 level. At that point in time, I firmly believe there will be better leverage to the upside in comparison to natural gas. If one is trading in and out of companies, oil is not the place to be. Quicker profits can be taken with gas dominated companies. I am an investor for the longer term, so my objectives are different than those of day to day or month to month traders. I hope this clarifies my reasoning. PS: You're right about the sell comment. I will revise the heading in my listings to reflect Buy - Accumilate - Hold.