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To: TREND1 who wrote (28815)	2/23/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry, What can you say about why MU is going to 10 ? How can you ask such a silly question?<g> The costs are going up... and DRAM continues to go down...haven't you heard?...Aren't you worried?...Can't you see the sky is falling for MU? In fact almost every week of every month of every year this is true...Didn't you know that? This is the basis for their Fundamental Analysis.:) Therefore, when the "forever bears" complete Their FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS on MU, their conclusions are that MICRON must also go down. Then they wonder why they missed a 22 - 39 move up...and I might add most, if not all, were short at this time...so they missed a tremendous profit to incur a further loss.<VBG> I don't know Larry...must be a new kind of FA...but it certainly isn't working. I guess the most comical comments I ever heard on this thread is when some of the "Forever Bears" criticize some other thread members b/c they don't post the bearish news along with the bullish news...Larry is there An SI rule that requires this. If there was...Of course this might require the "Forever Bears" to post some bullish news, which we never see them do.:-) Good Luck Trading DavidG

To: TREND1 who wrote (28815)	2/23/1998 3:45:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry, Looks like another lower high today 34 3/8 vs Fridays 34 15/16...and a lower low of 33 1/4 vs 33 3/8. SOX and NAZ up and MU still looking lethargic, almost as if it is afraid of that 33 point. Whatcha Think? ...and please don't tell me Dram prices are dropping and costs are going up<GGG> Good Luck Trading DavidG

To: TREND1 who wrote (28815)	2/23/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: mike iles	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry, Can't believe there's no correlation between MU and DRAM pricing ... I don't mean day-to-day but say over the last 5 years. There sure is a correlation between pricing and MU's earnings. Since as you rightly say the stock is looking at future earnings maybe you have to lag one of the variables. I don't consider analysts' estimates to be fundamental analysis ... Skeeter's estimates, yes -g- .... Won't bore you with long description of FA (as I understand it) but in my opinion you can't get it out of a computer. The number one thing is management ... oddly enough I have a lot of respect for Appleton's manufacturing smarts. This is their strength. On the other hand, neither he nor the board have shown much ability to do strategic planning. Why is it going to $10? Because they are losing money ... a lot of money. My quick estimate is $70M in the semi business this quarter and, at current prices ($2.75?), more next quarter ... over $100M. Further out who can say. Depends on prices (at current prices they have to increase unit output by 67% compared to Q1 in order just to break even .. and that assumes costs stay flat ... sorry,david they won't) and how fast they can ramp production. With respect to the latter, their capital spending has been anemic for several quarters (no wonder Appleton's mad at the Koreans). You got to wonder if they can keep ramping at 20% sequentially. And there's 64 Mbit. Unlike DJ, I don't think it's a plus for MU that the Japanese are getting out of 16 and focussing on 64 ... how long before we see 16 meg at 80 cents (where 4 Mbit is now)?? When a company is losing a significant amount of money these sorts of questions raise their ugly head ... that's why I see $10. regards, Mike P.S. maybe someone can help me but I believe that 1X sales is actually a pretty high valuation for bottom of the cycle ... do I hear .5?