Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Microcap & Penny Stocks : Green Oasis Environmental, Inc. (GRNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Brockman who wrote (8810)	2/23/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13091

Ditto... Regards, Ron

To: John Brockman who wrote (8810)	2/23/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: carl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13091

Charles - Didn't read your "survey" post until today so am not in the results (would have voted neutral) but do read regularly. Enjoy your posts. I follow the oil drillers thread on SI and saw this synopsis of articles in the March issue of Scientific American - To: Papaya King (12516 ) From: Baird Soule Monday, Feb 23 1998 2:19AM EST Reply # of 12528 Here's a summary of the Scientific American article on oil shortages: Shortage Looms in Worldwide Oil Supplies Experts Say Production of Conventional Oil Will Decline Within 10 Years; Reported Growth in Oil Reserves Since 1980 is "Illusion" Contrary to most oil industry forecasts, global production of conventional oil will most likely begin to decline within ten years, possibly resulting in radical increases in oil prices, according to an article published in the March issue of Scientific American. The authors, respected geologists and oil industry consultants Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrere, explain why the flow of conventional oil -- the cheap, easily recovered crude that currently supplies about 95 percent of the world demand for oil -- will peak and then drop off permanently before 2010. Unless demand for oil falls or substitutes are found, the industrial world's dependence on Middle Eastern oil will again increase dramatically. That could lead to price shocks similar to those seen in the 1970s, the authors warn. This provocative article leads off Scientific American's 19-page special report on oil production and technology, ''Preventing the Next Oil Crunch.'' As the report makes clear, the world is not on the verge of running out of oil altogether. By a variety of technologies detailed here, it is possible to tap unconventional sources for oil that have traditionally been ignored as too costly or difficult to reach. The challenge is whether those technologies can be developed in time to prevent a crisis from the decline of conventional oil. According to Campbell and Laherrere's analysis, the oil industry has already discovered about 90 percent of the roughly 1.8 trillion barrels of conventional oil that the earth contained. Almost half that endowment is now gone, and geological constraints will soon force production to slow, even as the demand for oil continues to rise rapidly. Campbell and Laherrere have each worked in the oil industry for more than 40 years. Campbell served as chief geologist for Ecuador with Amoco, while Laherrere supervised exploration techniques worldwide for the French oil company Total. Both men are currently associated with Petroconsultants in Geneva. Their article points out numerous flaws in the statistics usually used to track oil reserves. According to most industry reports, world oil reserves have marched steadily upward over the past 20 years and will continue to do so. Even the U.S. Energy Information Administration has projected that oil production will continue to rise unhindered for decades, increasing by nearly two-thirds by 2020. Such growth is an illusion produced by inconsistent definitions of reserves, by improper accounting of revised estimates, and by suspiciously large reserve increases reported by OPEC member nations in the late 1980s, the authors contend. Among their findings: Countries of the former Soviet Union often report wildlyoptimistic estimates of ''proved'' reserves that are only ten percent likely to be met. Subsequent official accounts of world reserves often fail to correct such inconsistencies. Revisions in oilfield estimates are commonly treated as though they were newly discovered fields, rather than as mere corrections. If revisions are properly backdated to the year in which the oil field was actually discovered, the true trend becomes visible. Oil companies have drained more oil than they discovered during each of the past 20 years. About 80 percent of the oil produced today flows from fields that were found before 1973, the great majority of which are declining. Why aren't the oil industry and governments more alarmed about this situation? Many observers pin hopes on expected technological advances. Also, economists point out that the world contains enormous caches of unconventional oil -- heavy oil in Venezuela and tar sands and shale deposits in Canada and Russia -- that can substitute for conventional oil. But the authors think that the industry will be ''hard- pressed for time and money need to ramp up production of unconventional oil quickly enough.'' However, Campbell and Laherrere say that with substantial preparation, the transition to the post-oil economy need not be traumatic. ''Safer nuclear power, cheaper renewable energy and oil conservation programs could all help postpone the inevitable decline of conventional oil,'' they write. They suggest that if advanced methods of producing liquid fuels from natural gas can be made profitable and scaled up quickly, gas could become the next source of transportation fuels -- a prospect that is also explored in the magazine's special report. Other articles in Scientific American's special report on oil production and technology include a survey of the methods now used to extract oil trapped in Canadian oil sands, as well as innovations in underground imaging, steerable drills and deep water oil production. Scientific American reaches more than three million globally by subscription, on newsstands, and on the Web at www.sciam.com. Published in New York City by Scientific American, Inc., the magazine won the 1997 National Magazine Award for Single --------------- You might also want to take a look at the following links (below) for more "Big Picture" info on oil production. Makes you think that GRNO's day should be coming. Carl petroconsultants.com and hubbertpeak.com