shall add to Zijin this day should the market be tepid
bloomberg.com
Copper’s Uber-Bull Predicts New Record on Most-Profitable-Ever Trade
Global copper prices have already risen sharply, with benchmark LME prices up 12% so far this year.
Photographer: Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg
By Jack Farchy and Mark Burton
24 March 2025 at 02:00 GMT+8
Kostas Bintas, a copper bull, predicts copper prices will surge to record highs, up by as much as a third from current levels, due to the US drawing huge amounts of metal and leaving the rest of the world, including top consumer China, short.
Summary by Bloomberg AI
The threat of copper tariffs has changed the market dynamic, creating a huge incentive for traders to ship copper to the US, where prices have soared to over $1,400 a ton above the rest of the world.
Summary by Bloomberg AI
Mercuria estimates that about 500,000 tons of copper is heading to the US, which will leave the Chinese copper market with insufficient stocks and force Chinese buyers to compete with the US market.
Summary by Bloomberg AI
One of the highest-profile copper bulls is back predicting new price records, as Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs drains global stocks and creates what he sees as unprecedented opportunities for trading profit.
Kostas Bintas became one of the best-known metals traders during his years building Trafigura Group’s copper book into the world’s largest, before his departure in late 2023. Now spearheading a push into metals at energy trader Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., he is again calling for copper to surge to record highs, up by as much as a third from current levels.
The huge amounts of metal being drawn into the US will leave the rest of the world — and crucially, top consumer China — perilously short, Bintas said in an interview.
“We think there is something exceptional happening in the copper market,” he said. “Is it unreasonable to expect a copper price of $12,000 or $13,000? I’m struggling to put a number on it because this has never happened before.”
Bintas was one of the first of a growing chorus of traders and investors to predict that copper was about to enter a multiyear bull market in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, and that rising demand for electrification would outpace supply growth. At Mercuria, he’s teamed up with another prolific bull: former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. metals strategist Nick Snowdon, who roughly a year ago was forecasting average prices of $15,000 a ton in 2025.
Still, copper bulls have been disappointed on several occasions, most recently last year when prices surged to a record high above $11,000 a ton, only to falter as Chinese buyers stepped back from the market.
Now the dislocations caused by Trump’s threat of copper tariffs have changed the market dynamic. While the US has yet to impose broad tariffs on copper imports, domestic prices have soared to over $1,400 a ton above the rest of the world, creating a huge incentive for traders to ship every spare ton to the US.
“In terms of the margins per ton, I’ve never seen a better trading opportunity,” Bintas said.
The shift of inventory to the US means the Chinese copper market will be left with insufficient stocks, Bintas said. Chinese buyers — who account for more than half of global demand — will be forced to compete with the US market. At the same time, the large volumes of scrap copper that typically flow out of the US have effectively dried up.
“China has been successful historically in rejecting high prices,” said Bintas. “This is the first time in recent history that another market is taking tons away from the Chinese market. That’s why it’s uncharted territory.”
Mercuria estimates that about 500,000 tons of copper is heading to the US, most of which is already on the way. That compares with normal monthly imports of about 70,000 tons. Traders are shipping metal to opportunistically profit from the large price differential, as well as frontloading already-planned shipments in order to clear customs before any potential tariffs are imposed.
Mercuria itself has 85,000 to 90,000 tons en route to the US. Bloomberg reported previously that some traders have been redirecting shipments from Asian customers to the US.
Bintas isn’t alone is his bullish call. Investment funds have lifted their net bullish positions in LME copper to the highest since last May, according to exchange data. David Lilley, chief executive of hedge fund Drakewood Capital Management Ltd., predicts that the pull of copper to the US will leave Chinese buyers facing “much more aggressive competition for metal.”
Global copper prices have already risen sharply, with benchmark LME prices up 12% so far this year to $9.855.50 a ton on Friday, and US futures on Comex, inflated by the tariff threats, nearing a record high.
US Copper Scrap Exports Plunge
Weekly net exports, copper contained
Source: US customs data; Mercuria
The global market is showing some signs of tightness, but not yet indicating the extreme squeeze that Bintas is predicting. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, copper has moved into the widest backwardation in more than a year, with nearby contracts trading above later-dated ones in an indication of tight supplies. Copper premiums in China have been rising since the end of February, although they remain at modest levels by historical standards.
Of course, the prediction for a surge higher in copper prices could be undercut if worries that a trade war could cause a global economic slowdown prove accurate.
Mercuria is unconcerned about that risk, predicting that global demand will outstrip supply by 320,000 tons this year, which, together with the draw of stock to the US, could drain a large share of the inventories outside the US.
What’s more, the tariff threat has caused exports of copper scrap from the US to dry up. About a third of global copper production comes from scrap, and the flow of scrap often acts as a market buffer, rising when prices are high and falling when they are low.
“Already through February, US scrap exports have gone to negligible levels,” said Snowdon, who is head of metals research at Mercuria. “You’re seeing an under-appreciated shock on the global copper market through this scrap channel.” |
