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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (10088)	2/23/1998 5:01:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

TSO: Check this out - historical BTBs for semi-equips: Message 3508677

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (10088)	2/23/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

TSO: I'm not sure if you saw my post about my AMAT early warning bird - Kent Electronics. Point I made then was, at least this was my understanding as of 1 year ago or so when I first started looking into KNT, that they have substantial business with AMAT and semi-equips. Have no idea about current state but I still keep an eye on them - either correctly or incorrectly inferring that business slowdowns in KNT precede business slowdowns at the AMATs of the world. Last q KNT warned and they got thumped (and like the semi-equips have recovered). ---- Well they just warned again (looks like a 30% earnings shortfall): Fourth quarter revenues are being hurt primarily by a reduction in orders from certain of the company's semiconductor capital equipment customers who are being hurt by the Asian economic situation. The combined effect of the order trends of the company's semiconductor capital equipment and computer customers will not be offset by the addition of several new and substantial customers that have signed contracts for Kent's contract manufacturing services during the fourth quarter. ---- This is yet another reason why these semi-equips going up makes "mucho nada sensimo" to me. But then again I will always admit it - I have no idea how to measure how much of the bad news is in the price of the stock and thus perhaps all of the above and more has already been reflected in the semi-equips' stock prices. ---- Any way we shall see... (Still underweighted in semi-equips and baffled at market moves but not in the mood to bite just yet.) ---- Best by-line of the day: *Iraq Hails Deal with UN as Triumph Over Evil* ----

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (10088)	2/23/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

TSO: On my buying WDC now I really am not absolutely certain that it's the best thing to do at the time. They may be down to flattish pressure over the near term. But as with your APM purchase: "It seemed like a good thing to do at the time." Willing to take some s/t pain. Hopefully pain does not translate to below $15. That would require Prozac... Unfortunately business has still not improved in the sector at this point in time. Still my hope is that we have seen the bottom in Hard Drives this cycle around.