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Strategies & Market Trends : Ted Warren's Investolator -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harvey Specter who wrote (1681)	4/4/2025 6:48:32 PM
From: investolator2000	Respond to of 1789

Hi Harvey, I think a lot might depend on how long the tariffs last. The last time my stocks were hit this hard was at the start of Covid. Whether it is the start of a bear market or not really depends on what the everyday Joe or Jane in the market thinks. Stock charts are the EKG of the trading public. I am also sure that there are others here that can give you a better reply than mine. I2000

To: Harvey Specter who wrote (1681)	4/4/2025 8:19:43 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By toccodolce Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1789

Hi Harvey, Really good to have you here. There are major broken market events. The Dot Com was supremely over value with anything that had Dotcom after it. Banks lost their working Capital on the housig bust, because loand were securitized and sold of with no credit or down paymeny behind the mortgages. A product of bnks being sued for redlining AND THEY CRACKED OUT THE CREDIT GATES FO ANYONE WITH A PULSE. When the bad lones showed up (which was inevitable) and the keys to do down hoimes got mailed in The banking system lost their capital - THATS A HUGE LONG TERM PROBLEM. China is experiencing it now and it takes a decade to work out of. This little tempest in a teapot is politics screaming inflation because Trump is expecting fair trade vs Eureo style legislation that assures an unfair trade practice while we foolishly give then defense protection because we're stupid/too nice for too long. If you find in Ted's book where Kenedy was assassinated, that was a general market sell off that Ted bought the heck out of it. It was a sad event and evil, but it did not undermine the economy of the US. One never knows until it works out, but I've been buying dividend payers. If this market continues down and takes a year or two to recover, I'm buying doiscounted share with every dividend Dollar I get. Most of my stocks are up about 100% from my long erm accumlation cost basis. I've had huge draw down the last 2 weeks. All of my dividends are coming in and all of them had increses in the last 12 months. The very best thing that can happen to my account is my dividend payers drop down 50% and keep the dividends coming with a modest increase next year. If it takes 1-3 year to recover, my account will be 25 to 35 percent higher.the next year. Having 30% cash when the market gets over valued ( i.e.MAG 7) is when you build cash. When they come crasing down, it tales 6 year minimum to rebuild strength. Those "safe" high flyers have a lot of air underneath them. So I ask myself "Am I buying value and getting a dividend to wait or am I speculating on buying a stock that's a high flyer and has a multiple of 30?". I'm committed to being an "Investolator". I'm in the market always for the power of compounding. If I'm lucky enough to get 2-3 10 baggers in my life ,I sell out quickly to recover my seed money and then calmly ler er run. The bitching going on is from spoiled countries who we've carried them for too long and now have a 36 trillion debt that needs to get paid down. What we're doing is LONG OVERDUE from a sustainability view. We don't need to support everyone, we need to do business with those who do fair trade with us. Then the politcal enemies of Trump (quite a few) scram bloody murder - whhich is pire politics. That's not the banking system collapse, of trillions wasted in IPO's for Dot,com companies who do not make any revenue, let alone bottom linbe profits. BOTH huge losses of capital. A typical example I did a lot of this week. I bot 21,000 sares of T for years via selling 15 and 16 dollar puts and hoped to get them assigned. Today they were selling for $27.00 to $28.00. Price was so advanced, that the common shares were yielding 3.9ish percent. Yet the preferred A shares were selling off at $20.00 BASED ON A PAR OF 25.00. They pay a fixed dividend of $1.25. I was selling the common for 28 (which paid a 3.9%yield and buying the discounted 25 Par preferred for $20.00 (yielding 6.25%). The preferred are higher up on the security scale and if they can't pay the dividend, they must stop paying the common. If they stop paying the preferred it accumulates and must be paid before they begin paying a dividend on the common. It was safer and had a higher yield. A safe trade in the confusion of a sell off that was creating fear in even the owners of the preferred. I swapped the expensive 6500 of the common for 9000 of the discounted and gave up $7215 in common dividends and gained 11250 added to my dividend revenue by buying more of a discounted stock that paid more? I looked at every stock on my list and they were all dropping. It was the only trade that made sense to me. The rest price action was scary. I think the decline is very close to over. TOO HOT TO HANDLE. I did sell 10 August CVX 105 puts for $1.00 per share. If assigned it will pay a dividend of 6.84%, on a net purchase price of 104.00 - a yield of 6.58%. I'll either keep the $1000.00 or buy a 1000 shares at a net cost of 104,000 and get an annual dividend of $6,840 a yield of 6.58%. Those techniques of accumulating shares take a long time, as it is paid for buy time decay of put premium. That's why investolators must learn to be patient. It takes time for an investolator to earn enough money to accumulate a large position to get the stock into strong hands of ownership! Today was a stressful day of watching account draw. Those were the only trades that I thought were safe. Thanks for the great question. It got me feeling good about my trades today. Bob

To: Harvey Specter who wrote (1681)

4/7/2025 7:57:59 AM

From: robert b furman

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1789

Hi Harvey,

As your excellent collection of stocks under accumulaton show, not all stocks have entered distribution.

There is higher to come.

Look at the semis (which are a huge part of our global economy (and in 2024 experienced double digit revenue growth):

From: Les H	4/5/2025 5:25:51 AM
	Read Replies (1) of 29176

Sector Breadth _ Apr 4, 2025 Mar 28, 2025 Mar 21, 2025 _ percent stocks over MA percent stocks over MA percent stocks over MA _ sector (num) 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d

Semiconductor (56) 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 7 43 18 11 2

Trump is reversing the globalization of the past decades.

The dip is severe, because Wall Street does not like the international commitments they've made to non American corporations.

The big investment banks may have their capital frozen - that would make it more severe like the GFC of 2000, when the banls lost their capital on housing that declned for the first time in American history.

The rest of the world is being forced to play even.

There are a lot of government bureaucracies whose sole purpose is to obfuscate fair trade.

It looks like that game is over when Trump called the game rigged and has ended it with tariffs.

It seems governments must now decide they must subsidize the industries that were cheating or pay the tariff.

To the degree the industries can't adjust and go broke, capital will be lost by banks.

To the degree governments want to subsidize, the capital is being supported.

My bet is: get out of foreign stocks and buy shares in US based businesses that do not do a lot of international business. My bet is the MAG 7 will decline. Their business has had a monopoly on international business due to oligopoly innovation.

Investing in US based infrastructure, road and manufacturing fab builders, commodities for building, US farmers (buying US ag products will be a solution to trade imbalances).

This sell off is more severe, because The Mag 7stocks have had distribution. Those 7 who have had distribution hold an inordinate weight in the indexes.

As the pain of buying overvalued companies impacts the indexes (which they surely will) many will be selling due to fear only. Even great stocks get sold in declines because they still have a bid on them.

If you know your stocks and their resilience to market swings, an opportunity for oversold good stocks is at hand.

Ted always said buy the stocks that resist declines in general market selloffs. With the indexes declining rapidly, those stocks resisting the general market sell off are beginning to shine.

I have a big position in T and it and VZ have had a nice recent run. They've been holding up nicely until Friday (they were actually advancing all week till Friday). I got lucky and sold out of VZ before last week. I'm thinking of paring down my position in T's common. Converting it to Preferred is a way, but it will incur a taxable capital gain to sell a stock that is so far avoiding the decline. I'm watching it closely.

As long as money funds don't go below the par at $ 1.00, I think we're safe.

I worry about Goldman and their past huge diversion into ESG in Europe (which has lost its alure) and VC's who bought up a lot of private businesses may have to hold them longer than they expected. So they sell what's working to raise cash AND WAIT OUT THE GLOBAL TRADE FLOWS THAT ARE GOING TO CHANGE!

It's touch and go, and bad if a couple of big banks get their capital frozen and they won't be bragging about it.

If that happens - it will be bad and take longer and worsen the sell off of equities in general.

JMHO

Bob