Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (77385)	4/6/2025 12:22:52 PM
From: Harshu Vyas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78463

I think of myself as super aggressive, super ballsy when it comes to investing. Don't mind being contrarian, catching a falling knife etc. But I agree that buying right now is utter madness. Not enough has been "priced in" for me to feel comfortable. Heck, if I were a short seller, I'd be having the time of my life. Nike, at current prices, offers far more downside than upside - it could fall another 60% (and still be quite an optimistic valuation given the tariffs). ft.com - worth a read if you have the FT. At the moment, only 10% has been wiped off the S&P 500 - but, logically, earnings are going to deteriorate far more than 10% and multiples are going to come down because of the uncertainty etc. Simple strategy to me seems to be to hoard cash. I think markets expect that countries will reach deals with Trump which is possible, but if not, as a a current buyer, you're screwed lol. What's the upside? A couple percent, maybe, but at least another 20% down if the situation doesn't change? The bull case makes no sense to me. ( - AND news outlets suggest that countries are thinking about how to retalliate against the USA. Monday could be very, very red if "surprise" countries signal they're willing to "stand up" to America. Unlikely, maybe, but it's just more unaccounted for downside risk.) Currently, fwd S&P 500 P/E is c.18x which accounts for earnings growth (totally unrealistic). Analysts will be quick to revise that. Maybe another downward catalyst - although, "smart money" probably already has reacted. Was reading that it's mainly retail buying. FWIW, I cannot predict the economy as my posts from yrs ago will show - but a slow down + higher prices + lower asset prices makes the most sense to me. Non-public sector unemployment is tricky for me to say. Idk about interest rates. Everyone expects them to go down because that's supposedly Trump's "big plan", but what if the inflationary effect is larger than the economic slow down? Could leave the Fed in a tricky spot. Manage inflation or growth? And what about the dollar? So far, it's unexpectedly weakened as investors lose faith in "America". Does that potentially mean inflation? Tricky to say, for sure. But lots to watch. This has been typed fast - sorry if it's incoherent. Truthfully, I have no idea about a lot of stuff - but that makes it clear to me that I shouldn't be buying.

To: Grommit who wrote (77385)	4/6/2025 1:34:58 PM
From: Paul Senior	1 Recommendation Recommended By petal Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78463

Clothing manufacturer stocks and some clothing retailer stocks sure are seeing a decline. So far, I'm holding on. I hold several assumptions: 1. Women will want to remain current in their fashion wardrobe. 2. Female teenagers will always, somehow, get money for cosmetics and clothes. Purchases will be made - maybe not as much going forward, maybe more selective. 3. Men. Clothing will be seen by men as irrelevant as now. 4. Used "stuff" will become more valuable, and more people will seek to buy such. 5. Ebay my first choice in "used", but Yahoo negative comments put me off. I'll add to AMZN (#2?) then instead.. Waiting now for the stock to drop closer to lows.

To: Grommit who wrote (77385)	4/6/2025 4:56:26 PM
From: petal	1 Recommendation Recommended By diegosan Respond to of 78463

me: Since "nobody knows what's coming", how can we make make individual investment decisions? Well, isn't that the case always? We don't know if tomorrow's the day that nukes start raining. Still, we invest. It's the classic "if we all die, it doesn't matter who owns which stocks" scenario. Or put another way, it's another version of Pascal's god theory: "Best to believe in Him just in case, because if he does exist, you know he will be mad if u didn't believe bro". In still other words: disregard 'macro' – only look at 'micro'. (Of course, look at macro as far as (but only as far as) it concerns your companies, though.)