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Technology Stocks : CellularVision (CVUS): 2-way LMDS wireless cable. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Fink who wrote (1277)	2/23/1998 9:15:00 PM
From: James Fink	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

As I have repeatedly stated on this thread, Strategis Group estimates that block "A" LMDS licenses in the top ten markets are worth approximately $25 per pop. Translating this figure to CVUS yields a per share price of $13 7/16 per share ($25 per pop times 8.6 million pops) divided by 16 million shares = 13 7/16 per share. Strategis basis its estimate of $25 per pop on the fact that the A & B block PCS licenses went for an average price of $16 per pop and the C block PCS licenses went for an average price of $39 per pop. Couple this with the fact that the PCS licenses consist of only 30 MHz of spectrum whereas LMDS licenses consist of 1150 MHz. The difference in bandwidth between LMDS and PCS is enormous. Whereas PCS licenses suffer from capacity constraints, the wireless bandwith provided by a single large-capacity LMDS license can carry 16,000 phone calls, vast amounts of computer data or 200 television channels. This permits LMDS licenses to offer one-stop shopping of a multitude of services, something that PCS licenses cannot possibly match. Furthermore, LMDS licenses can serve as a fully-functional competitive LEC, capable of providing service to allcomers, whereas PCS will always be a niche service. The fact that the auction will not yield $25 per pop is irrelevant to the true value of CVUS' license. First of all, the auction requires cash, whereas the acquisition of CVUS could be done with stock. Second, the most deep-pocketed players are excluded from the auction, namely the LECs and the cable companies. I believe that WinStar is willing to pay the true value of $14 per share for CVUS because it can use its overpriced stock as currency. WinStar has a negative book value and is losing money. Buying CVUS for $14 per share in stock (0.40 WCII shares) is actually a bargain for WinStar because the true value of 0.40 shares of WCII is nowhere near $14.