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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Julius Wong who wrote (213079)	4/8/2025 11:18:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218584

re <<Trump adviser Peter Navarro and 'economics expert Ron Vara' are same person, NYT reported in 2019>> ... what about Rasputin? as counter, and Xi, as friend of both, sort of, of the Trump and of the Putin

To: Julius Wong who wrote (213079)	4/9/2025 6:17:13 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218584

re <<Trump adviser Peter Navarro>> ... needs to get out more, someone at tea told me. I remain agnostic and wish to see more from Peter, happy to wait

To: Julius Wong who wrote (213079)	4/9/2025 6:26:08 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218584

re <<Trump adviser Peter Navarro and 'economics expert Ron Vara'>> ... triggered something zerohedge.com "Trump Playing With Liquid Nitro" BY THE MARKET EAR WEDNESDAY, APR 09, 2025 - 17:12 Widening rapidly The credit markets are starting to show signs of stress. The yield spread between the high-yield corporate bond composite and the 10-year Treasury bond is widening rapidly at the same time as the VIX is soaring. Source: Yardeni Credit "crunched" CDX IG has exploded to the upside. Chart 2 shows the CDX IG (inv) vs SPX. Source: Refinitiv Source: Refinitiv “The avalanche has really just started” Credit legend and Saba Capital Management founder Boaz Weinstein is warning that the selloff in corporate bonds accelerate by tariffs tensions could spur a wave of bankruptcies that may ramp up faster than in previous market crises... and The Fed is hamstrung from taking action (cutting rates to save the world) because of inflation fears. Three powerful quotes: “The avalanche has really just started,” “The hit could be faster and the bankruptcy rate could spike much faster than other crises.” "Investors shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a severe recession," Equity vs credit protection Need a bigger chart for both the VIX and the CDX IG. Source: Refinitiv The waterfall formation ETFs that invest in high-yield corporate bonds and in senior bank loans are starting to plunge. Chart shows HYG and BKLN. Source: Refinitiv Playing with liquid nitro "The Stock and Bond Vigilantes are signaling that the Trump administration may be playing with liquid nitro. Something may be about to blow up in the capital markets as a result of the stress created by the administration's trade war. If so, then the S&P 500 will fall into a bear market for sure. That's the bad news. The good news is that the Fed Put will probably make a quick comeback if this happens. However, the financial markets might not recover unless the Trump administration moves quickly to negotiate trade deals. It might have to postpone the tariffs for 90 days while it is doing so." (Yardeni) VIX playbook: Now it is a crisis The VIX closed turnaround Tuesday at 52.3, a statistically significant new high for the current tariff-driven selloff and in territory we have only seen during past periods of crisis. The 4-standard deviation level for the VIX is 50.7, and we are now above that. The only times the VIX has closed over 50 since its introduction in 1990 were in 2008 – 2009 (the depths of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession) and 2020 (Pandemic Crisis). Source: Refinitiv VIX levels that demand a policy response We are now in the realm of VIX levels that demand a policy response if stocks are to stabilize. 1. In 2008 – 2009, Congress and the White House were indecisive and slow with respect to addressing the Global Financial Crisis and coincident Great Recession. The TARP bill, meant to bail out the US banking system, failed on its first vote, signaling that lawmakers did not grasp the extent of the problem. 2. Policy action was much swifter in early 2020, since the nature of the crisis was clear to all. Congress passed multiple bills providing fiscal stimulus, ultimately totaling $5 trillion. The Fed took the unusual step of backstopping the US corporate bond market on top of its usual playbook of cutting rates to zero and buying long-dated Treasuries to reduce interest rates across the curve. The (sort of) good news is that, in a crisis, markets are ultimately bigger than any individual or even government. They will ultimately force a change in policy, either by the current administration or a future one. Put another way, the VIX is both a symptom of the problem and, eventually, the cure. (Data Trek)