Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (213901)	4/26/2025 7:19:52 AM
From: Julius Wong	3 Recommendations Recommended By Arran Yuan marcher Pogeu Mahone Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217752

J.P. Morgan said it expects gold prices to cross the $4,000/oz milestone next year, citing an increasing likelihood of a recession due to U.S. tariffs and an ongoing U.S.-China trade war. The bank now expects gold prices to reach an average of $3,675/oz by Q4 2025 on the way to push past $4,000 by Q2 2026, with risks skewed towards an earlier overshoot if demand continues to surpass expectations. "Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4,000/oz next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand averaging around 710 tonnes a quarter on net this year," the bank wrote. Central bank demand was one of the greatest drivers behind gold's rally in 2024, and a combination of economic, trade and U.S. policy uncertainty, plus geopolitical unpredictability should keep demand strong, JPM analysts said, adding that it estimates central banks will purchase ~900 metric tons of bullion in 2025. Central banks bought 1,045 tons of bullion in 2024, accounting for ~20% of overall demand, according to the World Gold Council.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (213901)	4/27/2025 4:18:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217752

re <<Gold>> ... - do not have and never had gold futures - only have physical / paper gold, gold mining ETFs GDX and GDXJ, and miners FNV and DRD - should I sell gold, presupposes I know that the trade war is over, victor declared, and dollar secure - I neither know nor suspect such presupposition - I do know ... (1) between 1982 and today, buying 1 troy oz of gold would have resulted in superior gain relative to one unit of DJIA and S&P500 and one barrel of crude for the years 1996 through 2007, and for the years 2014 through today (2) overall, a regular annual buy of gold for the years 1982 through today would result in 6.50X gain for gold, 8.59X for DJIA, 9.56X for S&P500, and 2.11X for crude (3) the associated annualised percentage gain averages to 4.56% Gold, 5.26% DJIA, and 5.52% S&P500 (4) as and when and if Gold rises 25% from current level to $4,000, and DJIA declines 20% to 32,090, and S&P500 declines 20% to 4,420, then ... (4-a) a regular annual buy of gold for the years 1982 through when-that-day comes would result in 7.83X gain for gold, 6.88X for DJIA, and 7.65X for S&P500 (4-b) the associated annualised percentage gain averages to 5.02% Gold, 4.70% DJIA, and 4.96% S&P500 (5) am guessing that there is a good possibility within 2025 that Gold rises 25%, and DJIA and S&P500 declines 20%, all from current levels