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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Julius Wong who wrote (213931)4/28/2025 4:54:45 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218169
 
downside 2500?
upside depends on time horizon



To: Julius Wong who wrote (213931)4/28/2025 6:01:32 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218169
 



To: Julius Wong who wrote (213931)4/28/2025 7:06:34 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218169
 
Re <<Gold>> … from behind the curtain …

zerohedge.com

Gold Hangover

BY THE MARKET EAR

MONDAY, APR 28, 2025 - 17:55

Life after ATH

Gold is reeling after an explosive rally, shedding over $200 from it's all-time highs. What started as a textbook pullback is now testing key support levels — and momentum players are getting nervous.

Gold technicals

Gold is down some $215 from the ATH print we saw a few sessions ago. So far this is just a much needed pullback. Supports to watch: $3200, this is where the 21 day comes in. After that comes the short term trend line and the 50 day, currently another $200ish lower. Resistance around the $3450 area.



Source: Refinitiv

Less overbought...

...but far from oversold.



Source: Refinitiv

The overshoot

Gold overshooting the 200 day moving average in an extreme fashion has led to rather aggressive "local pullbacks", according to Nomura's McElligott.



Source: Refinitiv



Source: Nomura

"Somebody"

Somebody stopped selling Treasuries and loading up on gold, at least briefly.



Source: Refinitiv

That "somebody"...

...stopped puking dollars and gold reversed lower.



Source: Refinitiv

Reducing

CTAs shaving off some of that gold long.



Source: DB

Downside convexity

CTA projections has momentum chasers as potentially aggressive sellers of gold.



Source: BofA

The hedge

VIX isn't "cheap" when zooming out, but is starting to look like the relatively more attractive short term hedge compared to gold.



Source: Refinitiv

Almost gone

The gap between gold and BTC is almost gone...



Source: Refinitiv

Some love it

Monthly gold demand by China gold ETFs exploding to the upside.



Source: Jefferies

Some refuse it

Latest update shows gold net non commercials at the lowest levels in more than a year. Treat this as a massive "implied" bid, or a big warning sign?