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Gold/Mining/Energy : NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Area51 who wrote (112)	4/30/2025 8:44:22 PM
From: Elroy	1 Recommendation Recommended By Area51 Respond to of 126

Yeah, I don't know the affect of reduced oil prices on NGL. Some of their water transport business is on fixed volume contracts, but I don't know what percentage. I would guess the preferred will continue to pay the distributions for a while, as their annual EBITDA (about $620m) is plenty to cover debt interest ($230m), preferred distributions ($115m) and maintenance Cap Ex ($100m?). They've got about $170m cushion, and if EBITDA drops I would imagine growth projects vanish before preferred distributions get suspended. The partnership's silence since Q1 2025 ended is sort of odd, though. They could give an update with how their previously announced plans turned out (minor asset sales, line of credit is supposed to have zero borrowed on it by March 31st 2025). My hunch is the three months Jan to March was good for them because it was super cold.

To: Area51 who wrote (112)	5/1/2025 2:03:38 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 126

I just bought a small amount of NGL-B at $20.80. Seems a tad too cheap. NGL will report March Q results about June 2nd. I think they'll show an improved balance sheet compared to the Dec 2024 Q, so that should help the valuation on the preferreds. I don't think preferred distributions are seriously in danger. The issue for NGL is that they've gotta come up with $600m to refinance the privately held preferred D series by summer 2027. I don't know how they plan to do that, but perhaps the owners will just let them refinance them on similar terms, and push the expiration date out further. NGL has said they want to repurchase some of the D's using free cash flows, and they can do that, but I doubt they have $600m of free cash flow by summer 2027. That's only 27 months away.

To: Area51 who wrote (112)	5/5/2025 7:07:47 AM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 126

With this news I think it's safe to assume the preferred distributions will continue to be paid NGL Energy Partners LP Announces Recent Asset Sales and Other Cash Proceeds Totaling Approximately $270 Million https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ngl-energy-partners-lp-announces-103000469.html The proceeds will be used to pay off the remaining ABL balance and the excess cash will be used for additional deleveraging and addressing other parts of our capital structure," commented Mike Krimbill, CEO of NGL.