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Technology Stocks : CyberGuard Corp. (CYBG) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LarryG who wrote (1270)	2/24/1998 2:17:00 AM
From: Terry Menia	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2616

LarryG - and just when we were getting used to being the Rodney Dangerfield of the firewall group! Did anyone listen to the NA/TISX conf call today? They told a very compelling story. NA guy said there would be no independent firewall companies in 12 months - all will have been acquired. He indicated you need to be able to sell a full security suite covering all five areas of security (firewalls, C/A, encryption, etc.) If this is so - looks like either SCUR or ourselves are next. Question is - who and why? Wonder how NA viewed us when they were racking and stacking the companies to determine who to buy. Our next assignment needs to be to find out who we fit with and what our approximate valuation would be. I would say something less than the $300M NA paid - but probably more than $200M. That gives us a stock price of at least 24 looking only at market cap. I believe I'd take that and run. Comments please. ---------------------------- Naysayers (SecurityGuru and the like): OK, give me your best shot. I think this piece is bullshit - SCUR has a good product but no C/A capability and their NT product is not up to snuff with CYBG's - jump all over me and tell me why we won't be bought next: <<NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of Secure Computing Corp. (SCUR) rose 11.2% Monday on the news that Network Associates Inc. (NETA) had signed a definitive agreement to acquire Trusted Information Systems Inc. (TISX). Analysts said they expected the computer security industry to continue consolidating in 1998, and Trusted Information Systems' pact with Network Associates means there are fewer companies available to partner with or acquire. "Clearly, there's a consolidation going on in the computer security industry," said Paul Merenbloom, a Prudential Securities analyst. "A lot of people thought it would happen last year, but the market just wasn't ready." Analysts said Secure Computing may be an attractive partner or acquisition because the company has a strong technology product and its stock is relatively inexpensive compared to other makers of software used to prevent unauthorized users from accessing a computer network. "If you are looking for firewall properties to buy, there are a lot fewer things to buy now, and Secure is certainly the best value in the firewall place," said John Powers, an analyst with BancAmerica Robertson Stephens. Merenbloom said Secure Computing is "a natural" company to watch because there are some similarities between it and Trusted Information Systems, including both having roots in the government and military sector. "The question that comes up is, 'Who would be a natural partner or buyer for Secure Computing or do they have the appetite themselves to acquire?"' he said. Secure Computing's shares were recently up 1 1/4 to 12 3/8 on Nasdaq volume of 425,600, compared to average daily volume of 141,300. BankAmerica Robertson Stephens analyst Powers thinks Secure Computing is more likely to acquire a company than be acquired. "I suspect that they want to be a big player in their own right," he said.>>