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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus who wrote (214197)	5/7/2025 6:02:53 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217764

oh mine apparently most must lose so that a few can rise Gini coefficient trends almost everywhere trending in the wrong direction the worst Gini is in South Africa the worst can always and easily get worse-r if the leadership at the same time are comprised of the 0.01-0.001%, kneecap the regulatory authorities, and gad, get hold of the central-banking function the tail-end risk is always the same, conflict borne of class struggle the tail-end risk accelerates appearance should the internal and external intelligence services are also kneecapped or hijacked

To: Lazarus who wrote (214197)	5/7/2025 6:41:26 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217764

Suspect Bloomberg, perhaps belatedly, tells me that change is coming ... “Change is coming,” says Casey Millburg, policy director in the mayor’s office. “It is real. Even if we don’t know what it is. It’s going to be big.” But first ... an interesting PoV bloomberg.com States, Cities Face Funding Collapse Threat with Trump Cuts Officials are confronting deep uncertainty about funding for programs that undergird their economies — just as Trump’s trade war has raised fears of a recession. By Ted Mann, Shawn Donnan, and Nazmul Ahasan May 7, 2025 at 6:00 PM GMT+8 In city halls and state capitols across the US, officials are readying for President Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s aggressive cost-cutting campaign to land on their doorsteps. State and local governments — in both Republican and Democratic strongholds — rely on federal dollars for the infrastructure investments, social programs and other projects that undergird their economies. Now, a wide swath of the $1 trillion in annual grants they receive from the federal government is under threat, creating deep uncertainty just as Trump’s trade war has raised fearsof a punishing recession. In St. Louis, a curfew-check program for juvenile offenders was suspended for a time earlier this year over a lack of clarity on funding. Officials in Waukesha County, Wisconsin, are contemplating cutting mental-health services and meals on wheels for seniors as they anticipate the disappearance of federal dollars. A street and transit overhaul in Nashville is at riskof being curtailed, despite years of public debate and a local tax initiative to help shoulder the cost. While the extent and target of Trump administration cuts are not yet clear, these kinds of programs have drawn particular attention because of how they might appear to collide with the president’s agenda. Some social services offerings could be perceived as the kind of diversity, equity and inclusion program the president has railed against, and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has signaled a pivot away from mass transit and efforts to fight climate change. In Waukesha County, Wisconsin, officials are contemplating cutting meals on wheels for seniors.Photographer: Sara Stathas/Bloomberg Even initiatives that already won government funding are not necessarily safe, as the Trump administration has frozen dollars that former President Joe Biden had awarded. “There will be a slowdown in economic growth, for sure, because of the cuts,” said Lucy Dadayan, a principal research associate at the Urban Institute. It is difficult for state and local governments to assess how much funding is truly at risk. The future of Musk’s DOGE initiative is uncertain, and Republicans on Capitol Hill are wrestling with how to meet spending cut targets in an upcoming budget package. At the same time, some of Trump’s funding-related executive actions are being challenged in court. Federal Funding to Local Governments Varies Widely Grant dollars to city and county governments in fiscal 2024, per capita Source: Bloomberg analysis of Account-Level Data (File C) from USAspending.gov Note: Recipient types and award classifications were matched using Prime Award data (FY 2020–2025). Counties were assigned using place of performance when available, or recipient location as a fallback. Statewide and ambiguous records were excluded. In some cases, recipient and performance counties may differ. Some outlays may not be fully captured if awards couldn’t be matched. But in the first full month of the Trump administration, there were signs of a pullback: The US in February made just $4.3 billion in new, binding funding commitments to state and local governments, a 57.5% decline from the same month a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of federal spending data. The administration initially paused all federal payments to local governments before rescinding that memo days later. Still, agencies are continuing funding reviews called for in an executive order. A US Treasury Department spokesperson said those reviews likely impacted the obligation of funds. Last week, Trump proposed deep budget cuts to domestic government agencies while boosting spending on the military. The president asked Congress to cut non-defense spending next year by $163 billion, about 23%, from current levels — an indication of how his administration intends to continue efforts to reduce and eliminate federal programs aimed at everything from medical research to education to affordable housing. Any funding disruption will be tough to shoulder: Most US states are already facing substantial difficulties in balancing their budgets, Dadayan said. Covid-era aid is lapsing and sales tax income has retreated after a pandemic surge in purchases of consumer goods. The cost of income tax cuts in dozens of states is also coming due in the form of lower receipts. ‘Change is Coming’ The money that state and local governments received in 2024 overwhelmingly went to supporting individuals through Medicaid, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, but it also flowed to local libraries, public schools, police departments, road pavers, housing agencies and hospitals. Grants to State, Local Governments Totaled $1 Trillion in 2024 Medicaid funding made up the largest share of the dollars. Trump has said he will not seek to curtail benefits in that area, but congressional Republicans have discussed potential cuts to the program Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis In St. Louis, city officials have identified $176.8 million in near-term federal funding that they have assessed is at risk, based on Trump’s anti-DEI push and executive orders he has signed. They expect everything from programs to build and repair affordable housing to the buses that ferry seniors to medical appointments could be affected. “We have a lot of opportunities, and we are positioned to grow in a lot of ways,” says Mayor Cara Spencer, who took office April 15 and was quickly thrust into the city’s annual budget process. “But with the looming federal cuts, this will put our economic viability in question. I mean, it’s where the rubber meets the road.” St. Louis is benefiting from earlier federal investment. Spencer points to a new campus for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is due to open in the city in 2026. She also cites the city’s competitive advantage as the home for food and crop scientists. Yet like other cities, it is seeing cuts in its local federal workforce and facing broader worries about a slowing economy. “I track on a daily basis our sales tax numbers, our hotel and retail tax numbers that are coming into our city, those vital funds that make our city function. And it is very worrisome,” she says. One initiative that’s already been affected by the uncertainty is a program called Nightwatch, which makes curfew checks on juvenile offenders in an effort to reduce recidivism. It was paused earlier this year as the city awaited clarity on its federal funding. It was later restored, but the city says the program’s future remains unclear — as is the case for many offerings. “Change is coming,” says Casey Millburg, policy director in the mayor’s office. “It is real. Even if we don’t know what it is. It’s going to be big.” North Newstead Association in St. Louis is waiting for assurance that it will receive federally backed tax credits needed to renovate 113 of its rental units.Photographer: Michael Thomas/Bloomberg The Trump administration’s focus on DEI programs — essentially stripping out federally backed efforts to address generations of racial and economic inequality — has raised fears about the fate of services that support St. Louis’ predominantly Black neighborhoods. That includes the city’s home repair program, which is paid for with federal block grant funds and covers repairs like HVAC replacements and collapsed water or sewer lines. The idea is to help keep seniors in their homes and prevent a blight of vacant properties from spreading. Also in St. Louis, the nonprofit North Newstead Association provides affordable housing units in neighborhoods on the city’s north side. Their focus on redressing inequality for Black residents is precisely the approach Musk and Trump are trying to eliminate from government. Constance Siu, executive director of North Newstead Association, in St. Louis.Photographer: Michael Thomas/Bloomberg The organization is waiting for assurance that it will receive the $1.2 million in federally backed tax credits needed to renovate 113 of its rental units that the state has approved. But the funding ultimately comes from the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development, where affordable housing programs have already been targeted for cutbacks. Without that money, “North Newstead would most likely close and go bankrupt and have to sell off our properties,” says Constance Siu, North Newstead’s executive director. Moreover, contractors are telling her that new tariffs are raising the cost of raw materials for the project significantly. Beyond Cities The cuts are also likely to be felt far beyond dense urban centers. Waukesha County, a wealthy suburb of Milwaukee that was carried by Trump in each of the last three elections, is facing a budget crunch that officials expect to get worse. Paul Farrow, the Republican county executive, says Waukesha stands to lose at least some of the $40 million to $50 million in direct federal funding it relies on for an array of services. “I'm grateful the feds are looking at their funding to make sure that the funds are going where they’re supposed to be,” says Farrow, a former head of the state Republican party in Wisconsin. But Farrow and his staff are scrambling to adapt to the Trump administration’s breakneck speed. “They're moving at the pace of business,” he said. “We move at the pace of government.” Moorland Road in Waukesha County.Photographer: Sara Stathas/Bloomberg One project caught up in the uncertainty is a six-mile thoroughfare that links interstates 43 and 94 near Milwaukee and is meant to ease truck traffic. What started as a $50 million project is now nearing the final construction phase, which is due to cost $15 million to $20 million, with 70% expected to come from the federal Department of Transportation. The county is already preparing to step in if needed with county funds to keep programs going. It’s also running budget models for a wide range of outcomes next year: The most optimistic scenario calls for a simple repeat of existing funding, Farrow said. But one model calls for a loss of all of it. Short-Term Pain That kind of worst-case scenario, though, is hardly a sure thing. The US Congress hasn’t previously shown much appetite for the kinds of dramatic austerity measures some European countries resorted to during a debt crisis on the continent over a decade ago. Still, Trump officials acknowledge their cuts would cause short-term pain — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has compared the effect to a recovering addict’s “detox period” — but are betting the economy will flourish after that, when they expect capital will have been redirected from government to the private sector, thereby spurring growth. Some are skeptical that scenario will play out. That’s in part because Trump’s tariffs have already put businesses in a defensive crouch over hiring and capital investments. But it’s also because Trump and Musk haven’t been particularly specific about how they think this migration to the private sector can or should work. The cuts have the potential to be most damaging in states that are most reliant on federal support, said Dadayan of the Urban Institute. Louisiana and Kentucky are among the states that historically have been most dependent on such funding — places that strongly backed Trump. Red States Received More Federal Funding Per Capita in Fiscal 2024Federal grants for state and local governments, combined Source: Bloomberg analysis of Account-Level Data (File C) from USAspending.gov Note: Recipient types and award classifications were matched using Prime Award data (FY 2020–2025). Some outlays may not be fully captured if awards couldn’t be matched. That means Trump is poised to test his own voters’ stomach for policies that cause economic pain in their backyards. Transit at Risk In Nashville, the capital of the reliably Republican state of Tennessee, voters approved an ambitious city transportation improvement plan in a referendum in November after years of debate. But in February, Nashville Mayor Freddie O’Connell warned that aspects of the project would have to be reconsidered “if programs evaporate from a federal level.” The plan — which includes sidewalk and traffic signal safety improvements and deployment of a bus-rapid transit network — is funded primarily by a 0.5% increase in the county sales tax. However, it was also designed to rely on about $1.4 billion in grants from the Federal Transit Administration, some 20% of the proposed construction budget through 2039. Nashville Mayor Freddie O'ConnellPhotographer: Jason Kempin/Getty Images The city was conservative in its planning, said Mary Jo Wiggins, assistant director at Nashville’s finance department, and could tap local tax revenue to pay for less expensive parts of the plan if federal funding dries up. On Tuesday, the US Transportation Department released funding for a portion of the Nashville project, including $10 million for safety improvements along a major local artery. A city spokesperson said they are still waiting to hear about the fate of other grants awarded by the Biden administration but not yet distributed to the city. The uncertainty in Nashville is emblematic of what many other local officials are facing. Analysts at the liberal nonprofit Transportation for America estimate that more than $20 billion in funding for road and transit projects is at risk of cancellation, as the Trump administration has made consideration of climate change and racial injustice grounds for withholding federal aid. Trade wars, tariff threats and logistics shocks are upending businesses and spreading volatility. Understand the new order of global commerce. Transportation Department officials ordered personnel to halt payment of grants that had previously been awarded to cities and states but not yet contractually obligated to be paid. Those grants would be reviewed, an agency memo said, and in some cases cancelled if they included funding for projects that the administration considers anathema. That includes “bicycle infrastructure” and those that “purposefully improve the condition” for environmental justice communities or “actively reduce” greenhouse gas emissions. Transportation for America estimates that more than $20 billion in funding for road and transit projects is at risk of cancellation.Photographer: Eilon Paz/Bloomberg That could spell trouble for projects that got funding as part of the Biden administration’s Justice40 Initiative, which aimed to transform federal grant programs — including for transit projects — to steer their benefits to areas that had suffered from under-investment or been burdened with higher pollution. It means they’re linked to an equity initiative, the likes of which Trump and Musk have pledged to root out. All of this has left states unclear on how broadly grants for transportation, energy and pollution cleanup will be pulled back. And it has state transportation officials wary of even spending on projects with “obligated” federal funding, that is, contracts promising reimbursement from the feds, said Corrigan Salerno, a TFA policy manager. In Raleigh, North Carolina, officials have already held a ceremonial groundbreakingon a new railroad link to Richmond, Virginia, a project that promised to shave over an hour off travel times between the cities, and make train travel to Washington and Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor competitive with cars. The Biden administration awarded a $1 billion grant in late 2023 to build the railroad, but those funds now sit frozen inside Trump’s Transportation Department. Construction on the rail line is paused, and the whole project could be cancelled if officials decide it runs afoul of Trump’s orders to kill federal support for spending aimed at addressing problems that the president considers spurious. “We do not know when the S-Line grant will be able to move forward,” a spokesman for the state DOT said, “and we do not know what impact the review process may have on that project and others.”