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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (2344)	2/24/1998 8:51:00 AM
From: B Tate	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Stitch and ALL Watching the CNBC Asia market-close program tonight originating in Singapore. es-spurt analysis says that regional currencies will go lower in the short term. Everyone is holding Rupia JUST in case the old man of Indo decides to go ahead with the currency board, regardless of world opinion. Why sell rupia at 9500 to one when it might go to 5500 to one. Makes sense to me. <vbg> Gee a high school education is worth something. This fellow has been on the program several times in the last month. Don't recall his name but he is a Currency Analyst for one of the larger trading houses in Singapore and has proven to be right most of the time. He feels that no matter what Suharto does that the currencies will retreat again.(for the Malaysia Ringgit back to the 4+ area and then begin to stabilize). He feels that even if the currency board is implemented its benefit will be very short term. If it isn't then the rupia will crash as soon as it becomes evident that it isn't going to be implemented. Either scenario says the rupia will fall, thereby impacting all the rest of the SEA currencies. On another note, Malaysia announced today that they were doing away with 'Preferred Bumiputra Status'. To those of you unaware - Bumiputra (literally translated as son of the soil - Stitch correct me if I'm wrong)status is available only to "ethnic Malaysians" or muslims. The Bumi's get preferrencial treatment in terms of tenders and ownership in companies. Most new companies formed in Malaysia MUST have 51% Bumi ownership. Another example is that up to 30% of IPOs are reserved for Bumi ownership. It is a complicated set of rules but this announcement can only be described as GOOD news. The stated reason for this change in policy is, to further the perception that Malaysia is moving more toward a open financial system and it will provide foreign investors with more confidence in the Malaysian economy. More news. Today I watched my first 'Play' on the KLSE. As it happened there were two stocks being played at the same time. Yesterday I noticed a stock that I had been following JTOP, had very high volume with NO price change. 4500+ lots had changed hands in the first session. JTOP is a palm oil plantation that has no exposure to land investments and thus benefits from a solidifying exchange rate. Just churning to build the volume and then for three sessions the price acted/indicated more like a stock that was under accumulation - Bingo the players had made their 20 % and now the stock will probably drift lower over the next month and then they may hit it again. JOPORT was another that 'played' today. Same scenario, my source didn't find out about it until it was well underway - to late to get in and benefit. It is semi-public knowledge when this happens. The players must first line up the resources in cash - 30 - 50 MM - move it offshore ( to foil the securities folks), typically to Singapore and line up the various parties to do the buying and selling at specific prices and points. The lead player keeps track of all the trades and maintains the proper balances and ratios. He and he alone decides how much is enough or when to cash and run. These guys are sharp. The more I learn of the workings of the 'play' I'm IMPRESSED. The one thing they bank (pun intended)on is the greed of the Malaysian investor, if they see unusual volume they automatically think that good news has leaked to the privileged few and they follow like lemmings over the cliff. Enough from the First side of the world for tonight. bt