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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3504)	2/24/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: ralph keating	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

[ifsc] biz.yahoo.com looks like a bad day! ralph

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3504)	2/24/1998 10:02:00 AM
From: David Lawrence	Respond to of 18691

>>Currently I am in the minority with my negative view of CTXS. It's the right camp at the moment - down >$2 this morning.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3504)	2/24/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: CatLady	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

CTXS TA: Message 3514267

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3504)	2/24/1998 11:17:00 PM
From: Al Chechatka	Respond to of 18691

I agree with you that there is a degree of uncertainty with Citrix. Just read there annual report. I think you are also right in both the shorts and longs make money. I am currently both. (I write covered calls currently the June 60's (the old '90's). They can take my stock away at $90. I will get creamed on a big down movement though. Where I disagree is the Microsoft Windows terminal Server. In order to run terminals off of it, you will need Citrix Picasso or Microsoft's T-Share (I forget there release name) Winframe sales will go down because it is on an older version of NT (3.51). The new deal I think is even better because ICA will run on top of the MS Terminal Server. You won't have the incompatabilities like you mentioned with Winframe. So when people run the new NT, with Terminal Server support, they can add-on Citrix pICAsso product or add-on MS T-share. The beauty is they can add it at anytime they need terminals or remote access. (For example, I run NT4.0, in the next release of NT, I can addon Terminal Server support and pICAsso or T-share] at anytime!!! As NT, WAN, grows in popularity Citrix will benefit The uncertainty is will Microsoft undercut Citrix by giving away their product (thus eliminating the need for Citrix) or selling it inexpensively. I personally don't think so and I am betting on it (literally). But that is not going to be Citrix's only income. Citrix also benefits in the Unix environment. Now you can run Windows applications on Sco or a Mac using ICA. With these, Microsoft would not want to kill Citrix because it sells MS Office to Unix users, and that product is a cash cow for Microsoft. Corel is coming out with a terminal ICA like I believe for Unix as well. But they will be pushing Wordperfect Suite instead of Office so I think Microsoft will push Citrix in the Unix environment (since they cannot compete for 2 1/2 years in that environment). Finally, I think Citrix is going to make a ton on this product. There load balancing server. So you can have 5 or 10 servers running Centralized Windows applications. This one is huge! I think as big as ICA. Currently Cisco is selling load balancing at the IP level for Internet Server's in their routers and it is selling like hotcakes! The market potential for this is huge. I really appreciate your note and explaining your reason for your shorting Citrix. For those that are both long and short it, please read there annual report from the research page using excite. It tells all the risks that you mentioned. I hope you take profits on your shorts as it goes down as I do when it goes up. It is a great momentum play. We both get nervous. You get nervous when the stock is going out of sight for no reason like it did early Dec. I'm alittle nervous now.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3504)	2/25/1998 3:11:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger and others who are short ATHM: A word of caution is in order on your ATHM short position. ATHM CEO has admitted to some on-going talks with AT&T regarding a possible business partnership. There are some news stories that the deal could be as high as 2 billion dollars. And then they have recently announced a deal with TCI. And then just today Greenspan spilled gasoline on fire by saying he will consider lowering rates if the economy hurts (yeh, right a big surprise.) All in all, it leaves stupid money chasing stupid and illogical stocks. I urge caution if you are short ATHM - this darn thing is headed to high 40's in a short order, IMHO. These days it is not easy to evaluate the worth of even the drug stocks with mostly predictable revenue and earnings stream. For stuff like ATHM, it gets even more complicated. Then again, I am long ATHM and my view can be biased. Take it for what it's worth. -Mohan