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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (25789)	5/20/2025 8:27:51 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26251

Whether or not the stock market tops here and begins the next leg down will depend upon the bond market. If bonds cause the next panic, tech stocks will lead to the downside as usual. Mighty big if, but you did identify the origin of the bear case. Best hedge here is shorting bonds and high beta. If bonds cooperate - again a big if - SPX will initially plunge to 5400-5500 area from this high but eventually to 4400-4450 during this leg down. Bears are entitled to dream too: they will remember this week's high as a good high, llke the one we saw weeks after Bear Stearns belly up bottom. Moral of the story: watch the bond market and know what are the best hedges.

To: Real Man who wrote (25789)	5/20/2025 10:47:27 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 26251

Sure, I think you are nuts because you are almost always bearish, even in wildly bullish times. But I do take you seriously, consider you to be bright in an inverted perverted way sometimes and read your posts and think about them. I thought what you said about the bond market or bond vigilantes was spot on. That is why I took a substantial position in TMV today. The stock market rally hit the upper end of my target yesterday. I don't know if the next leg down is just beginning or a correction to the upper $5500s/low/mid $5600s. What I do know is that I added some shorts today and Gold this evening. I trimmed a few of my longs. I don't want my portfolio to experience again what it experienced in early April. I am up nicely this year and plan to maintain it. I have a little more work to do.