To: David Colvin who wrote (48690 ) 2/24/1998 11:50:00 AM From: Tom Carroll Respond to of 58324
RE: Yes! to the logical shorting theory David, Thanks for the AOL post about "logical" shorting. I fully agree with that poster, and in fact posted something similar, but without all the technical details about how to short effectively, a while back. (Everybody on this thread knows that I can't call a short sale effectively for squat and am too chicken to do any shorting anyway.) All you have to do is watch the intraday charts every day and ask yourself why they look the way they do to get some sense of this. Particularly striking a little while ago was the tendency of the price to drop like a stone in the last half hour of low-volume, flat trading days. (Thanks to Gary Wisdom for drawing our attention to it.) Curiously, the AOL poster doesn't mention this component of the shorting strategy. It's clear that the parties dumping those shares are driving down the closing price so that the newspaper-only investors (poor blokes) will read the paper the next morning, see the price drop (once again), and become weak-hand sellers. Once the weak hands have sold, the short-term shorters can turn around again and buy up at the cheaper price. Fun and games. Meanwhile, the earnings have been growing steadily and will continue to do so. Yes, the rate of earnings growth is slowly coming down--it had better do so, or every household in the USA will soon have to devote a considerable fraction of their disposable income to the purchase of Iomega products <g>-- but the earnings are still going up. And if they are, then the price will follow if you hold long enough. For lazy, patient investors like me, that's what counts. Cheers, Tom (long IOM)