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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Oeconomicus who wrote (3512)2/24/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Upstater  Respond to of 18691
 
SCMM JUNK

The Most Overvalued in Market?

Beat estimates by .01 this morning, which ain't that great for a stock with a 630 PE. Also announced 3,000,000 share secondary offering (Float is currently 7 mill) with 1/2 the offering overseas in the Frankfurt market (don't you love those European swindles?).

Here's a post from YHOO boards below. The writer did his homework:

Here's the Research Report you all should get. This is a Wallstreet Report on SCMM.

In particular, its P/E the street recommends is 13 ~ 58. This puts SCMM at around $5. This is in line
with our expectation, so far. No bull. Just simply concise.

Now ... this is real research! hah!

(I PERSONALLY PAID FOR THIS FOR YOU ALL TO ENJOY READING. MY COURTESY).

Enjoy reading.

************************************************************

SCM Microsystems

131 Albright Way Ticker: SCMM
Los Gatos, CA 95030 Exchange: NASD
(408) 370-4888 Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Peripherals

Complete Financials: Sep 1997 Earnings Announcement: NA

Business Summary
SCM Microsystems designs, develops & sells
standards-compliant hardware, firmware, & software products
& technologies used in smart card & other token-based
network security & conditional access systems. For the 9
months ended 9/97 revenues rose 24% to $17.9M. Net loss
applic. to Common fell 39% to $878K. Revenues reflect
higher unit sales of DVB-CAM products. Lower loss reflects
a shift away from lower margin PCMCIA peripheral products.

ISSUE DATA (01/09/98) PER SHARE DATA RATIOS
Price $ 24.44 EPS (TTM) $ -0.12 P/E (TTM) NM
52W High $ 31.50 Sales (TTM) $ 3.74 Pr/Sales 6.53
52W Low $ 18.63 CashFlow (TTM)$ -0.02 Pr/CashFlw-1,437.53
Mkt. Cap.$ 259.65 Mil Book Value $ -0.66 Price/Book NM
Shrs Out 10.63 Mil Div. Rate $ 0.00 Yield 0.00 %
Float 3.40 Mil ROE (TTM) NM %
Mon. Vol 2.05 Mil LT Dbt/Eq 0.00
Daily Vol 0.03 Mil
Beta NA

SCM Microsystems Ticker: SCMM
HISTORICAL QUARTERLY RESULTS
REVENUE
(Thousands of U.S. Dollars)
1996 1997
1st Qtr MAR 4,257 4,365
2nd Qtr JUN 4,256 5,618
3rd Qtr SEP 6,000 7,952
4th Qtr DEC 7,007

TOTAL 21,520 17,935

EARNINGS PER SHARE
(U.S. Dollars per share)
1st Qtr MAR -0.108 -0.102
2nd Qtr JUN -0.156 -0.025
3rd Qtr SEP -0.008 0.000
4th Qtr DEC 0.007

TOTAL -0.265 -0.127

VALUATION RATIOS COMPANY INDUSTRY SECTOR S&P 500
P/E Ratio NM 33.53 33.42 25.38
P/E High - Last 5 Years NA 58.85 48.24 37.17
P/E Low - Last 5 Years NA 13.84 16.08 13.40
Beta NA 1.19 1.26 1.00

Price to Sales (TTM) 6.53 1.96 4.70 2.93
Price to Book (MRQ) NM 3.65 7.63 6.00
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) NM 3.95 8.47 8.13
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) -1,437.53 16.32 21.40 16.42
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) NM 29.40 37.46 38.53
% Owned Institutions NA 38.87 46.45 60.13

Here are other facts, under SCMM web. Does SCMM have fundamentals?

1. DESIGN COMPETENCE:
Its engineers lack competence to develop "Swapsmart" products. They are busy being copy cats that
were caught. A strong company must be innovative, and keep abreast of leading edge technology.
However, SCMM engineers were caught in the act, and were severely punished. They infringed
Gemplus patents:

In April 1997, Gemplus served the Company with a complaint alleging that
the Company's SwapSmart product infringes certain claims of a French
patent held by Gemplus. In September 1997, the Company entered into a
license agreement and memorandum of

7 understanding, and settled this dispute, with Gemplus. In connection
with these transactions, the Company issued warrants to Gemplus to
purchase up to 200,000 shares of Common Stock at an exercise price of
$13.00 per share and up to 200,000 shares of Common Stock at an
exercise price of $14.00 per share. The Company also agreed to sell
200,000 shares of Common Stock to Gemplus at a purchase price of $9.00
per share. The Company's operating expenses for the quarter ended
September 30, 1997 include a one-time expense of approximately
$515,000 in connection with the foregoing agreements, approximately
$453,000 of which is non-cash consideration associated with the
warrants.

2. Does SCMM care about its investors?

SCMM has already diluted 1,000,000 shares to already 7.6 million shares. This happens while their
earnings are still very negligible. The following is the SEC filing on 2/6/98. Even SCMM thinks the fair
market price is around $14.

STEVEN HUMPHREYS
PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
SCM MICROSYSTEMS, INC.
131 ALBRIGHT WAY
LOS GATOS, CA 95032
(408) 370-4888
(Name, address and telephone number of agent for service)

Common Stock, $0.001 par value
to be issued under 1997 Stock Plan 1,000,000 $ 14.01 $ 14,011,082.50 $ 4,133.27