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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (91894)	5/27/2025 4:14:48 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97327

I guess that eruption is due in about 90,000 years, so we still have some time before it hits.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (91894)	5/27/2025 4:23:15 PM
From: Qone0	3 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 Hayduke Sun Tzu Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97327

I asked grok to calculate the optimum tariff rate using the laffer curve. Conclusion The optimum tariff rate, based on recent studies and the Laffer Curve, is likely 10–15% for U.S. imports, generating $300–500 billion annually, far below Bessent’s $600 billion claim. Economic nationalism and populist conservatism support tariffs as tools to protect U.S. industries and appeal to anti-globalist voters, accepting consumer price hikes as a trade-off for national interests. However, the regressive impact and upward wealth transfer (with tax cuts for the wealthy) echo robber baron dynamics, as you suggested. The Mandate for Leadership at www.mandateforleadership.org details Project 2025’s tariff goals. If you’d like, I can refine the calculation with specific product elasticities, explore retaliation scenarios, or compare to historical tariff policies. Then I asked grok at what pain point does it all die. Conclusion The “pain point” at which populist conservatism and economic nationalism in Project 2025 “die” occurs when tariff-driven price hikes (e.g., 5–7% inflation), combined with tax cuts favoring the wealthy, trigger economic hardship, inequality backlash, political losses, or social unrest. Specific thresholds include inflation above 5%, GDP drops of 2–3%, or loss of 5–10% of GOP voters. Bessent’s Laffer Curve claim (optimal 10–15% tariffs) underscores revenue limits, with higher rates (e.g., 60%) risking trade collapse and undermining nationalist goals. These ideologies falter if costs outweigh promised benefits, as seen in historical tariff failures. The Mandate for Leadership at www.mandateforleadership.org details these policies. If you’d like, I can model specific tariff scenarios, analyze voter data, or explore historical collapses further.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (91894)	5/27/2025 4:42:16 PM
From: TigerPaw	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Respond to of 97327

*That eruption is over-due.* I've stood on ground-zero for that eruption and listened to the educational program about it. It's unlikely to erupt for thousands of years. The reason for this is that the volcano is a "hot spot" not a fault line. This means that it is probably a hole in the mantle caused by a meteor strike millions of years ago and not a break in the plate tectonics . The North American continent has been slowly moving across this hot spot for the last few million years. Right now the phenomena is under the Rocky Mountains . It's hot enough to create geysers but not hot enough to melt through those tall mountains as a full volcano (Hawaii has a similar geology but at a lower elevation). The mountains will eventually keep moving west, and when the hot spot is under the foothills it will probably blow. The North American Plate is only moving west about an inch per year, so it will likely be thousands of years before the eruption happens.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (91894)	5/27/2025 5:27:10 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 97327

That eruption is over-due. Actually, no. It turns out there's a natural safety valve.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (91894)	5/28/2025 1:06:05 AM
From: roto	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97327

"That eruption is over-due." Maybe not so soon. If one casually notes: The Grand Teton's are an hour's drive south of Yellowstone, but the geology of the two is like 180 degrees off compass. Yellowstone's volcanic origins can be easily appreciated by the size of it's caldera.. the Grand Tetons are an on- going "mass uplifting". " the Grand Tetons are the result of mass uplift, primarily due to faulting along the Teton Fault. The Teton Range is an active fault-block mountain range, meaning a large block of Earth's crust has been lifted along a fault line. This uplift is ongoing, as indicated by recent earthquakes and the continued rise of the range. The Yellowstone hotspot, located beneath Yellowstone National Park, also plays a role in the region's uplift, causing further fracturing and raising the Teton Range.." I'm thinking Mt Rainier, on the "Ring of Fire" is near catastrophic.. as in overdue.