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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (91907)	5/27/2025 5:06:12 PM
From: Qone0	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97450

Grok, tariff game theory. Conclusion With 10–15% tariffs failing to significantly alter trade volumes (5–10% import drop) or deficits (3–6% reduction, $100–150 billion) and creating only 100,000–200,000 jobs, Project 2025’s populist conservatism and economic nationalism face an early pain point. By 2026–2027, 3–5% inflation, 1–2% GDP drop, and minimal jobs shift to Low Tariff + Oppose, with 5–7% voter loss and 5–10% protests. High tariffs (20–60%) worsen outcomes (3–7% price declines, <200,000 jobs), leading to collapse by 2028 with GOP electoral defeats. Bessent’s Laffer Curve revenue ($300–400 billion) doesn’t compensate for job and trade shortfalls, undermining nationalist promises. Retrenchment to minimal tariffs is possible but unlikely. The Mandate for Leadership at www.mandateforleadership.org details these policies. If you’d like, I can simulate specific trade data, analyze voter shifts, or explore mitigation options for Project 2025.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (91907)	5/27/2025 5:06:39 PM
From: ajtj99	3 Recommendations Recommended By Clam digger Libbyt sixty2nds Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97450

Ed Yardeni Says It’s Not as Bad as You Think Think it’s all over for US markets? Think they’re finally going to sink under high valuations, inflated expectations and now a nervous bond market? Maybe think again, says Ed Yardeni of the eponymous firm Yardeni Research, who joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money. “I’ve been doing this for 45 years, and for that entire period the naysayers, pessimists and doomsayers have been saying that this time we are finally going to have to pay the price for our sins [of borrowing],” Yardeni says. But as he tells host Merryn Somerset Webb, it mostly turns out fine. Even as everyone works themselves up about the world’s problems, stock markets are mostly near record highs. And for all the endless talk about a US recession over the last three years, it just hasn’t happened. The truth is that the US consumer is as resilient as they come, he says. The baby boomers have some $80 trillion in net worth. They’re both spending it and giving it to their kids to spend. At the same time, US investors seem to have developed a long-term mentality: they see sell-offs as opportunities rather than “freakout situations.” All of this makes perfect sense to Yardeni: others may be wobbling on the Magnificent Seven, but he is not. They may have just had their own mini bear market but he sees those big tech companies as uniquely American, and with their huge cash flows and stunning innovations, genuinely exceptional. And beyond them are more extraordinary technological advances—artificial intelligence, autonomous cars, humanoid robotics and the like. These will drive growth and productivity to new heights in the US, he predicts.