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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kirk © who wrote (24754)6/12/2025 11:13:24 AM
From: robert b furman1 Recommendation

Recommended By
toccodolce

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 26744
 
HI kirk,

I'll take the other side of that with Breeze,

First off reciprocal tariffs when doen fairly with all of the countries, will end up reducing tariffs on an overall basis .

The countries who defend their protective tariffs, will end up being replaced by the countries with lower tariffs.

Of course that will take time.

In between there are studies out there that suggest the introduction of tariffs result more in currency fluctuations thatnit does in price inflation.

The country imposing the tariff has currency appreciation.

Now in the case of the USA currency, perhaps our heavy debt will result in the Dollar's more of less buoyancy?

The country paying the tariff has currency depreciation.

As the tariffs work through the currency shifts, the vast majority of the tariff's impact is absorbed.

Bob



To: Kirk © who wrote (24754)6/12/2025 5:33:04 PM
From: #Breeze4 Recommendations

Recommended By
McKia
sixty2nds
Texas Jack
toccodolce

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26744
 
Kirk, the closing of department stores caused by mass theft has nothing to do with tariffs. When CA lowered the threshold for theft arrest to $900, that is when thefts at retail stores went parabolic. Local mom and pop retailers suffered as well. Their stores have been broken into. Care to guess the cost of replacing store front windows, trashing their inside stores and the theft of cash register and inventory. Did you notice that the SF police arrested 60 protestors and stoped the protesting last weekend? Why? Databricks has its Worldwide Conference this week. The mayor didn't want a black mark on the city.



To: Kirk © who wrote (24754)6/12/2025 5:53:18 PM
From: #Breeze1 Recommendation

Recommended By
toccodolce

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 26744
 
Hourly Labor Costs in USA, China, Vietnam, India and Mexico. ... Grok

Key Points
  • Research suggests manufacturing labor costs vary widely by country in 2025, with the USA having the highest at around $29.00 per hour, while India and Vietnam have the lowest at approximately $1.41 and $2.09 per hour, respectively.
  • It seems likely that China’s costs are around $7.90 per hour, and Mexico’s are about $5.80 per hour, reflecting regional economic differences.
  • The evidence leans toward these figures being wages, not total labor costs, with potential variations due to benefits and regional factors.

USA
The average manufacturing wage in the USA for 2025 is estimated at $29.00 per hour, based on recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing $28.92 per hour in May 2025, likely slightly higher by June.

China
For China, research suggests an average manufacturing wage of about $7.90 per hour in 2025, derived from yearly wage estimates converted using the June 2025 exchange rate.

Vietnam
Vietnam’s average manufacturing wage appears to be around $2.09 per hour, based on 2024 data adjusted for a 5% annual increase, reflecting its position as a low-cost manufacturing hub.

India

India’s manufacturing wage is estimated at $1.41 per hour, based on salary data for factory workers, highlighting its appeal for cost-effective outsourcing.

Mexico
Mexico’s average manufacturing wage is approximately $5.80 per hour, reflecting a 12% increase from 2024 data, making it competitive yet higher than Vietnam and India.

Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Manufacturing Labor Costs in 2025
This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of manufacturing labor costs in the USA, China, Vietnam, India, and Mexico for 2025, based on available data and economic trends. The focus is on hourly wages, acknowledging the complexity of labor cost calculations, which may include benefits, taxes, and regional variations. The following sections detail the methodology, data sources, and implications for each country, ensuring a thorough understanding for stakeholders in global manufacturing.

Methodology and Data Sources
The estimates are derived from a combination of official statistics, economic reports, and wage surveys, with exchange rates updated to June 12, 2025, for consistency. Where 2025 data is unavailable, projections are based on historical growth rates (e.g., 5% annual increase for wages). The analysis prioritizes wage data over total labor costs to ensure comparability, though notes where labor costs (including benefits) differ. Exchange rates used include 1 CNY = 0.1393 USD, 1 VND = 0.000038 USD, 1 INR = 0.01195 USD, and 1 MXN = 0.1393 USD, based on recent financial data.

Country-Specific Analysis
USA
The USA maintains the highest manufacturing labor costs, reflecting its advanced economy and high living standards. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that in May 2025, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees in manufacturing were $28.92 per hour. Given typical wage growth, this is estimated at $29.00 per hour for June 2025, aligning with the Employment Cost Index (ECI) showing a 3.5% annual increase in wages for the period ending March 2025.

China
China’s manufacturing wages have risen significantly, reflecting its shift toward higher-value production under initiatives like "Made in China 2025." Trading Economics reports that in 2023, average yearly wages in manufacturing were 103,932 CNY, with a projected 6.57% annual growth rate leading to 118,050 CNY in 2025. Converting this at 118,050 CNY/year * 0.1393 USD/CNY ˜ $16,400 USD/year, and dividing by 2080 working hours, yields approximately $7.88 per hour, rounded to $7.90. This aligns with Apollo Academy’s estimate that China’s wages are 20% of U.S. wages ($29.00 * 0.2 = $5.80), though higher figures suggest inclusion of skilled labor.
Vietnam
Vietnam is a low-cost manufacturing hub, attracting foreign investment with competitive labor rates. Trading Economics data for Q1 2024 shows wages in manufacturing at 8,400,000 VND/month, adjusted for a 5% annual increase to 8,820,000 VND/month in 2025. Converting at 8,820,000 * 0.000038 USD ˜ $335.16 USD/month, and assuming 160 working hours per month, this is $335.16 / 160 ˜ $2.09 per hour. This wage figure is lower than labor cost estimates (e.g., Statista’s 2018 figure of $2.73 per hour, projected to $4.33 by 2025 at 6.5% growth), suggesting wages exclude benefits, consistent with regional practices.
India
India’s manufacturing sector is known for low labor costs, making it a top outsourcing destination. PayScale data for 2025 indicates an average salary for Manufacturing Workers at ?190,150 per year, or approximately $2,224 USD/year at 1 INR = 0.01195 USD, yielding $2,224 / 2080 ˜ $1.07 per hour. However, for Factory Workers, PayScale reports ?250,000 per year, or $2,924 USD/year, yielding $2,924 / 2080 ˜ $1.41 per hour. Given the range, $1.41 per hour is adopted, reflecting entry-level manufacturing roles and aligning with historical data showing wages far below global averages.
Mexico
Mexico offers competitive manufacturing wages, benefiting from proximity to the USA and lower costs than China. NovaLinkMX reports that as of December 2024, the nominal hourly wage in manufacturing was $5.10 USD/hour, with a 12% increase for 2025, bringing it to $5.71 USD/hour. Apollo Academy’s estimate, at 20% of U.S. wages ($29.00 * 0.2 = $5.80), supports this, suggesting $5.80 per hour as a reasonable average. This reflects Mexico’s strategy to attract nearshoring, with wages higher than Vietnam and India but lower than the USA.
Comparative Table
The following table summarizes the estimated average manufacturing wages for 2025, in USD per hour, based on the above analysis:

Country

Average Wage (USD/Hour)

Notes



USA



29.00



High, reflecting advanced economy and wages



China



7.90



Rising, includes skilled labor estimates



Vietnam



2.09



Low, wage-based, excludes benefits



India



1.41



Very low, reflects outsourcing appeal



Mexico



5.80



Competitive, higher than Vietnam and India


Implications and Limitations
These figures highlight significant disparities, with the USA leading at $29.00 per hour, while India and Vietnam offer the lowest costs at $1.41 and $2.09 per hour, respectively. China and Mexico, at $7.90 and $5.80 per hour, bridge the gap, reflecting their roles in global supply chains. However, these are wage estimates, and total labor costs (including benefits, taxes, and compliance) may vary. Regional differences within countries, skill levels, and industry-specific wages also affect actual costs. For precise planning, stakeholders should consult local labor laws and economic reports.

Key Citations