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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (26109)	6/12/2025 10:53:06 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 26251

I got it all back in 2016 yes, but it was a yo-yo, coming back from 2011 gold bear. I can’t bear the frustration seeing the Fed print a ton only to suppress gold. It finally unravels today, and I still count on them to print whenever SP500 drops a bit. Now that gold is at an ATH and SPX at record valuations it’s not really bullish. I’ve done well taking all that gold stocks money and plowing it into real estate near the bottom of the local prices. I’ve done well in the metals but I don’t like miners, and leveraged plays on gold miner is a suicide. Leveraged tech funds did very well in the tech bull. See, I have not been a bear or a gold bug since 2016 -g- Never bought miner or a metal since. I’ve been long US large caps and small caps periodically but yes I am afraid of bubble heights.

To: Rarebird who wrote (26109)	6/12/2025 11:12:01 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 26251

So here you go, the Fed balloons M0 10 fold since the GFC and what gold does in 2011? It crashes while the stock market goes off to a second tech bubble. Do I trust the gains? Not in the lifetime, this balloon is way higher with more hot air(count crypto) than dot com bubble, US sovereign credit is a bit suspect now and the bond vigilantes have arrived to demand higher yields for the use of the printing press. It will crash the economy for sure, no clue when. The proverbial fork in the road. The Fed prints again, and USA self destructs in hyperinflationary fire. The broke still lose, and die, but there is a good chance of a violent revolution. Commie of Nazi. Weimar hyperinflation triggered the Nazi. Russian strife (a few 0s to currency from WWI) triggered commies. They sink the life rafts (gold) when the going gets tough. In hyperinflation gold is the only place to hide. Either US bubble pops and there is a currency crisis and a nasty deflation or the game of poker and sinking life rafts continues while Rome burns in hyperinflation fire.

To: Rarebird who wrote (26109)	6/12/2025 12:17:10 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 26251

In 2016 I was Don Quixote fighting windmills, the Fed. Since then I don’t touch my shiny Knight armor and I sold the horse I rode on (gold). I use wind to power windmills instead of attacking them -g-. I do realize windmills can fall apart from high winds or poor construction and mismanagement. What I am trying to say is gold will now go to infinity and beyond -g- Since 2016 I am a chained bear who sold his soul to the Fed. I still see bearish nightmares but I don’t make active bets against the Fed, quite the opposite, I make fearful bets on the Fed. My observation of bond vigilantes who showed up after September 2024 Fed meeting is just that, an observation without active bets. They are here. -g- I also observe US stock market, it is in a bubble parallel to South Sea bubble a few hundred years ago when government and business elites colluded to print money to buy assets. That bubble ended in tears. This one will, too.

To: Rarebird who wrote (26109)	6/12/2025 12:40:35 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 26251

Bubble blowing in the United States caused enormous twin deficits which Trump now doesn’t know how to even start to tackle. The underlying truth is that the structural changes to US economy caused by decades of running asset bubbles will take decades to unwind. Who needs to work when riding a bubble is an easy way to riches? When everyone trades instead of working, hyperinflation begins. Easy profits, faster money, fewer goods. No need to worry about real estate, the Fed will bail me out for sure. -g-